November 26, 2019
November 20, 2019
Another way to say it, will the market continue to trend or will be correct. To dig deeper, will be a break to new highs and follow through with a similar rate of change as has been booked thus far since the 10/3/19 low? Or, will it fail and sell-off, form an inverted “V” shape top and give back gains with a high rate of change?
CT’s featured chart shows JPM at an extreme. with the market in both L-T and I-T resistance zone. Plus the longer-term chart on the left reveals an uptrend that is old, feeble and persistent but due for a change, as well as the I-T basis in the weekly bar. <more below>
The Short Term chart has the TEM model recycling to a fresh Techcnail Event #2, suggesting a high rate of change trend is back by the tension in the market. Like all volatility models, it does not suggest a direction, even in the face of the media’s bias of referring to stock market sell-offs as volatility.
However, the bigger picture of the JPM that divulges that a 13-year horizontal triangle was the springboard for this breakout. As such, a post triangle thrust is terminal trends, not the kick off of a new one.
Watch this space.
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November 6, 2019
The Dollar is at an extreme, a position where it needs to breakout or fail. The background – the context – supports a trending moving for whatever direction it takes. A move to 103 would still allow a correction in 2020 back to the mid 80.s before the secular bull market resumes.
The old school is out in full force, the equity bears who think the old Intermarket of the dollar down gold up and the stock market down is stuck in the ’70s. The old school is Gold competes with stocks. Since the turn of the century, they are in the same risk boat.
Gold has failed to be a hedge, looks to have uncoupled itself as a safe harbor. The charts show the market is complacent at this point, seeing no risk, after completing a head and shoulder’s top. The tidal wave system is now short the market, as well. Silver will follow.
In a phase Risk Off, that includes the metals
Furthermore, if there is no yield in most government-issued bonds they are now a risk asset also, as you can only make money via capital gain, yes? The US T-bonds are testing low, and a break confirmes the peak is in place.
The peak of the bond markets was on panic buying, just like all the other markets in reaction to the Fed succumbing to White House pressure to lower rates and print money. Gold and bonds both peaked in all time frames on poor or panic buying.
Commodities are starting to perk up via the S&P World commodity index. This has been a non-factor for decades. Rather the risk has been on the other tail, that of Deflation. In this regard, the commodity averages are in new uptrends. The other breadbasket of the world is Australia; their buck is at an extreme, where it is either going to breakdown suggest deflation – or fail to breakdown and reverse, which supports inflation.
With Crude at the apex of a horizontal triangle, direction to be determined by the break.play the break. The risk is that it dribbles out of the pattern.
The chart of the Dow Utility index portrays a rare expanding diagonal triangle. If valid the defensive market should go into a free fall back to where this fifth wave advance began at point (4) on the chart. Action out of triangles is typically a high rate of change affair. TEM supports the idea.
more to follow,
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