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March 10, 2024

Volatility Reports 3/11/2024 Nikkei Dow

A secular bull market for the Nikkei has been a long time coming

Excitement is well deserved by the new highs posted in the Nikkei averages. These new highs are a sign that Japan after decades is likely in a very long-term – secular – bull market. However, on a cyclical basis, a long term and intermediate term basis the Nikkei is putting in an important high.

Price and time fit the outlook that a final price high will be in place by the end of April 2024 or sooner (see post in group March 5, 2024.)
ProShares Ultra MSCI Japan seeks daily investment results (EZJ) two times (2x) the daily performance of the MSCI Japan Index®.

We saw it coming from the October 2023 trading range low (See October “Volatility Reports.) The most recent trend,  breakout, based on EWT can be labeled as post (after) triangle, which is a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend of larger degree or proportion.

The Nikkei futures have a little more work to do finishing off an all time high pivot but the 2x ETF shown here can be seen as a completed up trend. Thus I am expecting the new runs higher by @NK not to be confirmed by the ETFs. As such a bearish divergence would give confidence that a tradable high is in place.

Text me on WhatsApp if you want real-time updates when they happen, 760-459-4681, actions speak louder and CT is not transaction hungry.

The first chart here shows the last four times TEM nailed a COT as panic buying or selling.

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April 17, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/19/2021 FANG+

The way the head goes, the body goes.

When I coached Jr. High School football in the states, one factor that was drilled into the offensive lineman’s behavior was to drive the head in the direction front-rower wanted the defensive player to move. The same holds in the stock market averages. The way the leadership goes in the market will follow in time.

Furthermore, as mentioned on these pages, the bigger the profits, the larger will they fall when trend-following systems kick in.  Contrary Thinker uses the Fang+ index as described here to keep track of the leadership in this cycle, the one that began on March 9, 2009.

The NYSE FANG+ index is equal-weighted. At launch, five core FANG stocks, including Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet’s Google, plus another five actively traded technology growth stocks — Alibaba, Baidu, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Twitter.

The first chart in our featured gallery is the FANG+ index clearly showing a non-confirmation of a new high putting it out of gear with the ATHs by the Dow and S&P. Such a set up leaves the “Generals”  open to grave failure, and failures are dealt with harshly by investors and traders.

The middle window clearly reveals a similar top being made now on a Technical Event #3, like the primary high pivot 2/16/21 (a COT from MarketMap’s cycle’s table). Such a condition suggests the market background is feeble and due for a change. As you can see, the market’s potential secondary high is being rebuffed by Intermediate (I-T) (monthly) resistance starting at 7,023.00. Taking out last week’s lows of 6,862 would be a bearish sign.

Furthermore, the breakdown would gather a following because the I-T volatility modeling supports follow-through on new breaks or trend following signals. Tidal wave – without trend filters – has given a sell signal, as seen in the middle chart. The intraday chart on the right depicts a completed EWT pattern of a second wave rally irregular flat, which has ended.

The markets this week and into the end of April will be asked several demanding questions. For one “can you make a new high?” If so that event sends Contrary Thinker back to the drawing board; however, a new trend following cross under signal would be affirmative for the bearish camp. The same for a break below last week’s low at 6861.00.

Plus, a review of the components of the FANG+ index tells a story of pending weakness across them all, except for one or two on the outside.

To be brief, keep in mind the MarketMap-2021 longer-term scenario planner, if you are a visitor, Contrary Thinker suggests the eBook of MarketMap-2021.

Keep in mind that last week was an S-T change of trend time window where CT was looking for a change from up to down or sideways. Now the trend should turn decidedly lower,  with the next week or two to be lower.

An astute observation came across my inbox

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December 16, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/16/2020 FANG & Nikkei Dow

Horizontal triangles present holiday opportunities.

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