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January 14, 2021

Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21

The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.

Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.

The euro market has competed at least its first leg of counter-trend correcting its new long term bear market that began in 2008. Else it has completed a cyclical correction. In either case, it is about to start a tradable downtrend. A move to the 1.81 to 1.94 zone is likely.

The featured chart, hit the low side on LongTerm, resistance, which is coincidental with EWT resistance ghat runs from point 3 to 4 in the left-hand chart window. Along with the failure to get above that price level, the market failed to hold above I-T resistance shown on the daily bar chart.

The long term market peaked on panic buying and has an I-T high pivot with a TE#3, calling for the change of trend (COT). The daily bar also shows the “Alpha Trend Tracker” rolling over giving an S-T sell signal.  The S-T volatility modeling supports the high to low range expansion, so the trend sell signal should get S-T carryover.

From a tactical point of view, CT will be looking for a low-risk entry point for bear trades.

more to follow.

Back Story

The central bank said it expected the economic impact of the pandemic to last well into 2022, prompting an expansion of relief programs. Credit…Yann Schreiber/Agence France-Presse 


Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

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— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

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November 30, 2020

Volatility Reports US Dollar and FX 11/30/2020

US Dollar

Intermarket relationships are ephemeral, valid for the short to intermediate-term at best. The imputed market wisdom is when gold goes up US dollar declines and while the greenback advances the precious metals go down. But since late September both markets are in a decline; and both into a decline of a major COT time window according to our MarketMap change of trend dates. With today being a key date, November 30.

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February 21, 2019

Low Volatility ETFs in the Headlines for Contrary Thinking

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February 16, 2019

Direction Neutral Risk Assessment

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November 12, 2018

US Dollar Eyeing Key Breakout Level

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