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CT Journals
Gold Bugs
January 12, 2021
Volatility Reports 1/12/21
The leading indicators for the stock market are ticking off the checklist.
Back on 12/30, the Bitcoin market was labeled a Bell Weather. It should be clear to advisors, investors, and traders that BTC and others are not StableCoin, something that can be used for a more secure currency one that can not be counterfeited. But given the volatility of the market, it is a risk asset. As such, it is a bellwether for other risk markets, it is not a hedge as advertised.
The key price level
December 21, 2020
Volatility Reports 12/21/20
Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed, so they say.
December 14, 2020
Volatility Reports 12/14/20 Recap
The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.
USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.
December 9, 2020
The Last Fourty Years Were an Outlier
Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.
“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”
Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
November 30, 2020
11/30/20 Volatility Report Recap
The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes
November 18, 2020
Volatility Reports 11/18/2020 Stock Indices
Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere
When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.
The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames. Hence