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September 16, 2021

Volatility Reports U S Dollar

Two weeks to five-week bull run expected in the USD

The change of trend that hit on 9/6/21 is followed almost always by a 2 week to a 5-week trend. Like all COTs, they are direction neutral but the Dollar index is taking off higher and triggering buy signals.

Thanks to members and new network pros for keeping the previous post from one week ago in mind,- on the COT 9/6/21. Three weeks back in the blog post-VR 8/26/21 the price-based background provided long-term bullish conclusions.

URL to private LinkedIn Group for open-minded investment/trading professionals https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13677288/

Here is the three window look at the buck and what is attention-getting is that all three bars have put the Technical Event Model (TEM) at an extreme rule#2. This is not the typical analysis talk, it is not a sales gimmick, it is the tool used to see when a market’s dynamics are about to change. What the Technical Event #2 signals are to play the break, enter on the MA crossover, or whatever is used that triggers your entry position.

What is expected to be powerful is the bullish break because all time frames are on a TE#2. You can see the breakout levels on the charts that should add confidence to bull market traders. It is also the pain trade carried by the large managed funds, in an attempt to keep the dollar depressed, which is bullish for their stocks.

You don’t need to trade with a bias, but based on what else shows up on the charts, which is bullish. On 9/9/21 I added to my long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD. That advisory was posted in this space. #dollar #change #network

Long-term cycles are pointing higher into 2026-27. This fits with the analogist background that the dollar throughout US history is strong when the Dems. control the white house and weak when the Reps are in power.

The above bullish analysis on the dollar is not very popular. That may be because it is not full of hyperbole that we all find in the social media information stream regarding Bitcoin & Co, Gold, Silver, and the Euro, not to mention the hot stock pick of the week.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

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August 26, 2021

Volatility Reports 8/27/21

Unknown Unknown (Black Swan) or Known Unknown (Events Considered by Smart Money)

I’ll put it this way, the presidential race in 2024 will be Harris Vs Cheney. But first what is the market saying. For one, a panic buying signal was registered on 23 and 324 of August. The volatility background revealed an extreme of irrational buying on these two dates. 99% of the time they are events rather than conditions, the latter is normally witnessed on long bars, like the monthly chart, and used for risk and opportunity management. However, in the daily bar, it is almost always a “V” bottom or inverted “V” top, leading to a change of trend.

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August 26, 2021

Volatility Reports Bonds,USD and EUR 8/26/21

On the 16th of August VR said: “The set up for a big move by the bonds is now; only time will tell if it’s valid” August 26, no change.

While some may argue that a major double top is not in place, and from an EWT point of view, there are only three legs in the current sell-off, two down with an intervening rally. An A-B-C zig-zag, fair enough.

As a sidebar, I think this is where many advisors and capital managers get off the train because they feel they will look like an idiot telling their clients they are bullish on bonds because of it’s a zig-zag and not an impulse or motive wave.

Maybe one just needs a nose for change, see the handwriting on the wall, or get that minor necking pain in your neck (the later à la George Soros.) Be that as it is, the pressure is mounting for higher rates from all quarters, including the most important factor, the market itself. Leaving aside that South Korea was the first major country on the Pacrim to hike rates, both US 30 years and 10 years have the background for a dynamic trend to unfold at any time.

The monthly bar and the daily bar of the ten years have the Volatility Model signaling a Technical Event #2, a set up that 

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