November 19, 2020
The Pac Rim will need to prove itself during the expected worldwide bear market to achieve Alpha longer term. Contrary Thinker sees it getting that opportunity going into a cyclical bear market now.
The consistent information provided by the Technical Event Model gains in credibility daily. The meaning of TE#1 and #3 is clear as a reliable COT time windows. The long term – monthly bar – of GXC – the ETF traded here that tracks a broad, cap-weighted index of Chinese shares of all cap sizes – shows this clearly. The three TE#3 – in the vertical light blue lines – calls the market’s trend labored, becoming old, feeble, persistent, and due for a change. Unlike TE#1, because of its “persistent” and low volatility nature, there can be some lead time, yet it puts advisors, investors, and managers on the front foot. So while everyone I have read is marveling at the break to new highs, its background suggests there is a lack of vigor.
Furthermore, when you understand the context first the rest of the technicals fall into place.