June 9, 2020
Popular On Air Advisor says, “History Suggests Record 50-Day Stock Market Rally May Be Just The Beginning The S&P 500 has gained a record 39.6% since it hit its 2020 low back on March 23. Not only has that rally erased much of the year’s COVID-19-related losses, it’s also the best 50-day stretch in the history of the market. After such a strong rally, traders are understandably getting uneasy the market is overbought and due for a pullback. However, from a purely historical perspective, the strongest 50-day periods have generally led to even more gains over the year that follows.”
The analyst concluded that, ” since the S&P 500 was constructed in 1957 that the index has gained at least 20% over a 50-day period. In all seven instances, the index gained at least another 5.2% in the year that followed.”
But he does not do two things, one is go back to cover all the history of the stock market so there is some evidence of back fitting and two he does not say how the market may get there, which is tandemount to the capital managers p&l.
History tells a different story, for one so-called “V” recovery is not a historical record. There are many similar sharp – “V” shaped – and brief recoveries that lived inside of bear markets – like 2000-20003 and 1930-40, lastly making new nominal highs does not make it a new bull market by definition and mostly by its context.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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