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November 20, 2019

Crude Oil Waiting on the Break

Gain Better Control of your Strategy Engagement with CT’s Technical Event Model

As an example of strategy engagement, the use of the popular and highly reliable horizontal triangle. One of the main reasons some traders don’t do well in the markets is their inability to wait. A key strength of all great traders you will ever read about.

Please, if you know an active day trader who trades daily and is doing what Soros has or what Trout has or Dalio let me know, I will give you a free subscription to VR for 6 months.

In any event, this chart of the crude shows the horizontal triangle we have been watching for a few months. First, Contrary Thinker is not engaged in trading Crude here. That does not mean some systems are not working and some that are working very well.

Key I-T R&S Zones for break

The following numbers are from my %BB-DBR trading Crude Oil. Over the last ten years made 325k with contract management. That’s all good, and that is how the groundbreaking systems development began back in the ’90s and progressed into the first decade of the new millennium.

Today, however, system trading is more sophisticated. It is more like the way most investors and traders think anyway. They make a forecast, and after they have a forecast, they believe they come up with a trading plan – a strategy – to take advantage of the forecast. They typically do this without a highly accurate dynamics forecast and have no timing for the forecast.

Monthly P&L from %BB-DBR Taking All Trades on Crude with TEM coded

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October 28, 2019

Volatility Reports 10.28.19 Risk Markets

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September 26, 2019

Volatility Reports 9.26.19 Crude

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September 16, 2019

Volatility Report  September 16, 2018

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September 15, 2019

Oil at an apex

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August 13, 2019

Gold and Deflation

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July 24, 2019

Bitcoin relative to other historic mega runs

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July 24, 2019

S-T Outlook for mini Russell

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June 24, 2019

The Good Bad Attitude, Contrary Thinking

June 10, 2019

We Are In Worse Shape For A Recession Now

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Excepts: Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. Druckenmiller on CNBC ‘s “Squawk Box” Today WHEN: Today, Friday, June 7, 2019 WHERE: CNBC’s “ Squawk Box ” The following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. […]

Stanley is someone who takes what the legends know literally, as opposed the 99% of all the social media garbage you read, esp on Facebook and Twitter.  More on that in a moment.

However, January 18, 2018, Market Map told you what  Mr. Drukenmiller is saying now, no harm no foul stocks have done nothing since that date!

And in the   January 23, 2018, in my MarketMap 2018 update, I said ” …the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price, confirmed by a sizable decline %5 plus – established by our big swing (multi-month) systems sell (taking profits) and sell short signals before the end of the month. ” Just three days from the first of three peaks in the topping process.

In the February 12, 2018 publication I said

“The scenario was for the failed new high in late August early September, but as the January COT date was early by ten days. Now it looks like the peak will come at the end of the calendar month leading to a sell-off into mid-November.”

In the Volatility Report dated September 24, 2018, posted this table with dates for the peaks; and the maximum for the Dow was 10/3/2018. I concluded that brief expecting:

I concluded that “Single day risk measured by the Dow is 2000 points and risk going into November is at least 4,000 Dow points.”  Over the three months, the Dow gave up 5,240 points into December 24, 2018.

This topping process has been a gift, with the third peak hitting as a failed new high by the Dow.

Volatility Report dated April 23, 2019,

I laid it out this way ”  Traders should be on their toes for signs of a pivotal high going into the next change of trend window ideally on May 6 +/- 2 days but the leading edge on the 29th of April. Next Tuesday. Until that time, low volatility.”

The various significant indices peaked from April 29 into May 1 for the NASDAQ  and declined 7%, into a Short term low pivoted on the first working day of June.

“From an EWT point of view, the decline from the late April early May peak may have just now finished off its first S-T leg down, allowing for a retracement of .236 to .382. ”  I said on June 2, but the rally has been a high rate of change affair that my volatility model – TEM – supported for the three months downtrend at the time. However, the rally did not match the kick off surge back at the beginning of 2019. The type of momentum surge that Marty Zweig discovered to lead to more advancing markets. But this June rally has failed to live up to  same big “internal bullish ratios.”

The Bulls have one more day to give it a go because the markets are up against it now. Regarding Stanley well: 

What you learn from the great ones is good risk management is not to take a risk. Again 90% of managers hear that has rhetoric, just words. Where in, it is the truth that any good card player will tell you, if you don’t have the cards to win, don’t bet on the “if come.” And when you are on a winning hand, you go for the juggler.  Just ask Stanley, who is now in cash or kind.

 

 

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