June 15, 2021
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope, or as a . 400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market” James Carville
In the previous group post and blog post, I pointed out how interest rate cycles are regular and reliable. I pointed out as well that the fear that rates are moving higher had not abated since the initial run higher and that implied fear data reveals a coiling up of the data denoting frustration and confusion by the market regarding the viability of inflation.
Our model suggested a rapid and sudden movement in this data, and while I pointed out that “Volatility modeling is direction neutral, it tells the investor/trader, in this case, to trade the break, to trade the trend following signals. As noted above, TY rates have given a bullish signal on the rates.”
In our LinkedIn Group, I said ” TY is in a cluster of resistance as mentioned previously in this space. The 132.68 price if broken is a reversal trigger until the last Friday of June. Contrary Thinker’s bias is bearish for reasons outlined before and suggests TYO or shorting the nearby futures.
The market after implied volatility spiked lower ending its counter-trend of complacency, the government bonds sold off and the ten-year notes broke below 132.20, the low side of I-T (monthly) resistance, a failure sell signal.
In the Chart Gallery below the first chart shows clearly the drain of liquidity according to the Fed, and that drain is from the reopening of the REAL economy, inflation caused by none monetary reasons, like supply chain problems and drought.
The next three charts in the Gallery are about commodity-based inflation, which the majority believe what the Fed has said is “temporary.” Contrary Thinker is bullish on commodities from the March 2020 low.
CT’s chart of the 30-year T-bonds shows a massive failure. The 4 1/2 year cycle that has been posting up timely cycle lows has failed to do so with the last sequence of bottoms expected in early 2020 that produced a one-week wonder followed by a bear market. This left-hand translated cycle points to the next low series of S-T lows at the end of July, mid-October, and early December of this year.
The market has moved below its long-term moving averages and the pair of MAs have made a death cross, calling for more downtrend. Long Term support sones in from 134 to 147^19.
Suggested trade TMVDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares. Buy TMV at 71 ob, stop 66 with a profit target of 120, the low side of L-T resistance. I-T Volatility model is a fresh TE#2 supporting a forceful trend.
Stop, listen and learn. Don’t let time get by you.
The “time factor” provided in MarketMap™ will be critical to keeping you and your clients on the front foot. The New Era of Market Timing is Here. Get the full picture with this 45 day trial with CT’s eBook of cycles.
Chart Gallery Reflecting Pressure for Higher interest Rates. Bond Buyers will Demand it.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
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June 10, 2021
Major Change of Trend (COT) Time Window June 11 +/-2 days
COT’s are price and time-based events that apply to all markets; hence investors and traders should expect “hyper-correlation.” The outside world event may be dramatic and out of the blue, what the media calls Technical.
March 31, 2021
Just like most people by nature, I look for the truth. Yet today, it is flattering to see others finally talking in the same terms I found critical years ago, like the timing of market dynamics based on market context.
Like the following “When we get these types of extended moves away from the 200-day MA in the 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX, we historical get a period of sideways action following” Well, someone predicting the timing of a market condition, a trading range.
But the 80% deviation above the 200 MA as the indicator of a sideways market vs. a correction from the event is being based on the functionality of an oscillator.
February 16, 2021
The markets are in a time window for change. While the long-term correlation between the bonds and stocks will become positive later this year, the short-term relationship will continue on its counterbalancing framework.
With our focus here on the long bonds, it appears they have completed another leg of the new secular bear market. In the first chart CT pegs the low hit last Friday as the end of short term wave one in the longer I-T wave (3). Hence based on EWT, this market is just weeks away from going into a full-fledge – everyone sees the bear – sell-off.
The chart window on the left shows the Tidal Trend system short from right after the panic buying peak. Today all three trend-following indicators on that chart are trending lower. Our stand-alone “panic” index (not shown ) on the weekly chart is at 64 with 65 or higher being a bell ringer.
January 14, 2021
The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.
Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.
January 12, 2021
The leading indicators for the stock market are ticking off the checklist.
Back on 12/30, the Bitcoin market was labeled a Bell Weather. It should be clear to advisors, investors, and traders that BTC and others are not StableCoin, something that can be used for a more secure currency one that can not be counterfeited. But given the volatility of the market, it is a risk asset. As such, it is a bellwether for other risk markets, it is not a hedge as advertised.
The key price level
January 6, 2021
USD In the 12/14/20 update
December 21, 2020
Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed, so they say.
December 14, 2020
The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.
USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.
December 9, 2020
Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.
“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”