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November 26, 2019

Panic Buying in Biotech Sector

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November 20, 2019

JPM Play the Break or Fade the Break?

Another way to say it, will the market continue to trend or will be correct. To dig deeper, will be a break to new highs and follow through with a similar rate of change as has been booked thus far since the 10/3/19 low?  Or, will it fail and sell-off, form an inverted “V” shape top and give back gains with a high rate of change?

CT’s featured chart shows JPM at an extreme. with the market in both L-T and I-T resistance zone. Plus the longer-term chart on the left reveals an uptrend that is old, feeble and persistent but due for a change, as well as the I-T basis in the weekly bar.  <more below>

The Short Term chart has the TEM model recycling to a fresh Techcnail Event #2, suggesting a high rate of change trend is back by the tension in the market. Like all volatility models, it does not suggest a direction, even in the face of the media’s bias of referring to stock market sell-offs as volatility.

However, the bigger picture of the JPM that divulges that a 13-year horizontal triangle was the springboard for this breakout. As such, a post triangle thrust is terminal trends, not the kick off of a new one.

Watch this space.

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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

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November 20, 2019

Crude Oil Waiting on the Break

Gain Better Control of your Strategy Engagement with CT’s Technical Event Model

As an example of strategy engagement, the use of the popular and highly reliable horizontal triangle. One of the main reasons some traders don’t do well in the markets is their inability to wait. A key strength of all great traders you will ever read about.

Please, if you know an active day trader who trades daily and is doing what Soros has or what Trout has or Dalio let me know, I will give you a free subscription to VR for 6 months.

In any event, this chart of the crude shows the horizontal triangle we have been watching for a few months. First, Contrary Thinker is not engaged in trading Crude here. That does not mean some systems are not working and some that are working very well.

Key I-T R&S Zones for break

The following numbers are from my %BB-DBR trading Crude Oil. Over the last ten years made 325k with contract management. That’s all good, and that is how the groundbreaking systems development began back in the ’90s and progressed into the first decade of the new millennium.

Today, however, system trading is more sophisticated. It is more like the way most investors and traders think anyway. They make a forecast, and after they have a forecast, they believe they come up with a trading plan – a strategy – to take advantage of the forecast. They typically do this without a highly accurate dynamics forecast and have no timing for the forecast.

Monthly P&L from %BB-DBR Taking All Trades on Crude with TEM coded

Read More

November 6, 2019

Chart Gallery Primary Markets

October 28, 2019

Volatility Reports 10.28.19 Risk Markets

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October 4, 2019

Market Map October 2019

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September 26, 2019

Volatility Reports 9.26.19 Crude

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September 24, 2019

What does a low risk/high reward look like?

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August 14, 2019

Charts in Panic Mode Long Volatility Kick-Off

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August 13, 2019

Gold and Deflation

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