August 15, 2020
Shortest bull markets in history based
The risk markets are experiencing epileptic seizures. From erratic and violent outbursts up and down and windmill swing of 12% up and 12% down by the Euro/Dollar. We have witnessed the shortest bear market in history lasting five weeks, knocking off 37% in profits from high to low by the S&P. Followed one of the quickest bull markets since the 1930s lasting five months from the low to date and recovering all of the previous bear moving higher by 38% on average, pushing new highs.
And there is more with the great bull run by the gold of 42% in four months followed by a four-day 10% selloff. Contrary Thinker is expecting Bitcoin to be next on the big swing.
Advisors and capital managers are witnessing the most frequent run-ups in long VIX interacting with CB interventionist policy, responding to an economic and financial crisis. The unwinding of the pre-emptive monetary policy will not end well. They never do, and it is merely because there is no way to grow out of this amount of debt.
According to Ray Dalio, there are seven factors that the trained eye can see that rings the bell for a pending bubble ready to burst at the most straightforward outside event. Here is the checklist allowing you to check off on all the reasons WHY the markets should go into a bear market – both bonds and risk assets, if there is a difference anymore.
August 6, 2020
CT’s call for low in July around 96 on the US Dollar index was early, but that has not changed the long term point of view, which remains bullish. The low in 2011 was the end of a secular bear market. The six-year advance a cyclical bull market that kicked off a new very long term bull in the greenback. On a short basis, the index should have made a low panic Wednesday, August 5, 2020.
July 1, 2020
Inter-market-relationships, the relationship between risk assets is temporal at best. They can exist for extended periods and end without the media’s “breaking news” alerts. So the keen interest in measuring correlations is when they ALL reach “one.” When that happens you have hyper-correlation. In a phrase, all markets move in unison, and asset allocation or diversification is mute. Today the background of all of the markets from commodity index to bonds sets up for a period of trends.
What is particular about the US dollar, is in the face of the proclaimed rabid printing of money since 2011 the dollar index has advanced from the low 70s to a recent high of 104 or 43%. A bullish move one would not expect with the world awash in greenbacks. From the peak in early April, the index has corrected to the most recent area of bar chart congestion. That high to low range happens to be a 23% retracement of the entire move from 2011 low but more importantly, it is a 38% correction of the rally from February low. That advance is just the beginning of the meat and potatoes of the uptrend. In Ettiot wave terms, the third wave.
What gives Contrary Thinkers and this analysis confidence in this outlook is the context, , the volatility modeling underlying the market. The chart above on the left depicts a Technical Event (TE) #2 on the volatility data itself. This signal tells the investor/trader that a dynamic move is pending. This is based on weekly data hence it is a multimonth call. The weekly chart on the right shows the simple A-B-C decline with a typical “B” wave triangle.
The next chart is the first leg up from 2018 low that captures the A-B-C decline and the panic index on this weekly chart hitting an extreme and a buy signal. It is also a low-risk chart pattern. From a strategy point of view, investors engage trend following systems here, letting the uptrend take you into the trade. with a system’s status off if the market falls below “C”. Much better risk management as opposed to simply going low here.
The condition behind the index is near identical to the volatility model for all other markets here in the early days of July. For the buck, a TR#4 suggests that a low to high range of 10 points may be challenged, projecting 107.
The weekly chart in the middle says the current downtrend is old and ready for a change; and the short term chart on the right is registering a new TE#2. This background is calling for a trend and breakouts to get carried over. I have played the I-T support and resistance zones with the chart for breakout points. However, a short term band would be more sensitive to entry.
The pace at which emerging market economies are losing FX reserves is staggering. In March, emerging economies lost around $1.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves per day, according to Bloomberg.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.
— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.
Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options