• Background Image

    CT Journals

    oil

January 14, 2021

Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21

The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.

Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
January 11, 2021

Volatility Reports New Bull Markets

The primary markets are pivoting in the same time frame as MarketMap’s COT time window due this week.

A short recap for the US dollar is posting up a low. The flip side of that is the Euro is reversing and about to resume its downtrend. The US long bonds are posting up a low as well.  As Volatility Reports pointed out in the December 30, 2020 Volatility Reports on the Bitcoin that:

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
January 6, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 1/6/21

USD In the 12/14/20 update

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 21, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/21/20

Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed,  so they say.
You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 14, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/14/20 Recap

The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.

USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 9, 2020

The Last Fourty Years Were an Outlier

Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.

“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”

Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 30, 2020

11/30/20 Volatility Report Recap

The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 18, 2020

Volatility Reports 11/18/2020 Stock Indices

Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere

When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.

The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames.  Hence

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 16, 2020

Volatility Reports Bonds 11/16/2020

Bonds Long Term Bearish Trend Picking up Speed

Secular trends don’t turn on a dime, but they started at the end of 2017, the year of the lowest volatility in the market’s history. Since that date, even in the face of the need for increased sector rotation to outright market timing and long volatility investments, the sentiment repeats the same has to be a bullish narrative that began with QE1. But in the next forty years, we will witness a major shift that began in 1980 and is ending now. This does not mean everything is bearish, it means that strategies and timing, and time horizons will need to change.

The trend back to normal will be

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 10, 2020

Volatility Reports 11/10/2020

The Long Term Readings of the Panic Buying at the Top in August has not been resolved. That peak has produced a wide trading range leaving the bulls rabid and the bears frustrated.

The monthly highs posted from August to date produced a 7 1/2% trading range.  TEM’s rule #1 is accurate 99% of the time producing a change of trend (COT).

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!