• Background Image

    CT Journals

    oil

January 14, 2021

Volatility Reports Euro 1/14/21

The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.

Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.

The euro market has competed at least its first leg of counter-trend correcting its new long term bear market that began in 2008. Else it has completed a cyclical correction. In either case, it is about to start a tradable downtrend. A move to the 1.81 to 1.94 zone is likely.

The featured chart, hit the low side on LongTerm, resistance, which is coincidental with EWT resistance ghat runs from point 3 to 4 in the left-hand chart window. Along with the failure to get above that price level, the market failed to hold above I-T resistance shown on the daily bar chart.

The long term market peaked on panic buying and has an I-T high pivot with a TE#3, calling for the change of trend (COT). The daily bar also shows the “Alpha Trend Tracker” rolling over giving an S-T sell signal.  The S-T volatility modeling supports the high to low range expansion, so the trend sell signal should get S-T carryover.

From a tactical point of view, CT will be looking for a low-risk entry point for bear trades.

more to follow.

Back Story

The central bank said it expected the economic impact of the pandemic to last well into 2022, prompting an expansion of relief programs. Credit…Yann Schreiber/Agence France-Presse 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/business/european-central-bank-stimulus-coronavirus.html

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

January 11, 2021

Volatility Reports New Bull Markets

The primary markets are pivoting in the same time frame as MarketMap’s COT time window due this week.

A short recap for the US dollar is posting up a low. The flip side of that is the Euro is reversing and about to resume its downtrend. The US long bonds are posting up a low as well.  As Volatility Reports pointed out in the December 30, 2020 Volatility Reports on the Bitcoin that:

“To bottom line it here, we have a fantasy lead blowoff top repeating itself here in late 2020 just weeks away from the date when the exact “soft aspect,” aka angles, set up for a peak on or about 1/14/2021.  You will read shortly in MarketMap-2021 there is a nesting of change of trend data from many various and different mythologies occurring in mid-January +/- a week.”

It appears that the peak is attempting to set up where a decline past 33,000 is the next part of the puzzle, with the round number of $30,000 being a major break. Our trend-following and tidal wave cycles are still supportive of the bull for the time being. As always, we are not in a hurry or want bragging rights to call top tick. Rather, from a tactical perspective, then the set up is there for low-risk entry Volaltity Report for members only will alter members with a Hedge On Notice. The same pertains to all markets.

Like Bitcoin, the trend is up, which is clear in Crude Oil’s weekly and daily bars; on a trend following basis, there is no sign of a reversal yet.  All three of the trend following indicators are up, and the tidal wave cycle is bullish, for now.

However, long time readers know that this advisor’s point of view is that the Oil industry is a dinosaur and is being replaced by alternatives. What is scary is that CNBC’s Crammer made the same assessment on Friday that I’ve been making since the July 2014 prediction of a collapse in oil prices. So forget the long term of Crude and related, it is only considered as an S-T trading market, full stop.

The TEM on all-time frames tells investors and trades that the crude oil is near a high pivot. The S-T hit a panic extreme, and the I-T hit an extreme that calls the trend old, feeble, and due for a change. The weekly bar is just sitting above I-T resistance, now support. So a break below 51.55 and 49.65 would signal a failure and a market reversal.  I suspect that a decline in Cl will coincide with a rally in the long T-bonds. Any TEM background that supports an S-T trade-in wither direction will be posted here.

New Bull Market in Select Commidoty stocks and ETFs.

A new bull market has begun in the commodity universe. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index featured here has all the characteristics.  Like all the new Green Energy stocks and ETFs on our monitor list, other raw material producers like BHP are on the watch list. Today the group, according to various indices, has made high pivots based on TEM readings. A peak will be confirmed with a move by DJP below 21.99 and or the Tidal Wave Trend following systems flips to the short side.

For now, it’s waiting and watching this sector.

Visitors at the “Volatility Reports” Group in LinkedIn need to opt-in as subscribers before their free look runs out. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

 

January 6, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 1/6/21

USD In the 12/14/20 update VR was expecting “one more decline to the low 90s. The market provided that and a little more.  The signs of a major low setting up is the L-T condition of panic in the sell off over the last six months.  Nine times out of ten a panic context is an event, not an ongoing condition. Yet the stock market during the February-Market decline in 2020 registered such extreme readings. In fact, on the weekly chart, the Dow remained in panic mode for four weeks into the “V” major low.

The weekly bar on the dollar index has reached an extreme of old age. A feeble yet persistent trend that is due for a change. In the current time from with prices being in a cluster of support for all time frames, the buck is on our watch list for more signs that a low is in the place.

The following chart shows the I-T tidal force system is short with the market oversold, being below its L-T moving average. Below the bar chart is our %BB oscillator on implied volatility providing signs of a move to the safety of the dollar.

Back Story is the broad and overwhelming consensus among the Bulls from Brokers in New York to the Mutual Fund Factories in Boston that rest on the demise of the dollar.

Contrary Thinker sees an inflationary bust and the preservation of wealth in the USA. 

Membership includes “Market Map – 2021” and  “Volatility Reports” 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

 

December 21, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/21/20

Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed,  so they say.
You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 14, 2020

Volatility Reports 12/14/20 Recap

The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.

USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
December 9, 2020

The Last Fourty Years Were an Outlier

Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.

“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”

Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 30, 2020

11/30/20 Volatility Report Recap

The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 18, 2020

Volatility Reports 11/18/2020 Stock Indices

Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere

When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.

The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames.  Hence

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 16, 2020

Volatility Reports Bonds 11/16/2020

Bonds Long Term Bearish Trend Picking up Speed

Secular trends don’t turn on a dime, but they started at the end of 2017, the year of the lowest volatility in the market’s history. Since that date, even in the face of the need for increased sector rotation to outright market timing and long volatility investments, the sentiment repeats the same has to be a bullish narrative that began with QE1. But in the next forty years, we will witness a major shift that began in 1980 and is ending now. This does not mean everything is bearish, it means that strategies and timing, and time horizons will need to change.

The trend back to normal will be

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
November 10, 2020

Volatility Reports 11/10/2020

The Long Term Readings of the Panic Buying at the Top in August has not been resolved. That peak has produced a wide trading range leaving the bulls rabid and the bears frustrated.

The monthly highs posted from August to date produced a 7 1/2% trading range.  TEM’s rule #1 is accurate 99% of the time producing a change of trend (COT).

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!