January 12, 2021
The leading indicators for the stock market are ticking off the checklist.
Back on 12/30, the Bitcoin market was labeled a Bell Weather. It should be clear to advisors, investors, and traders that BTC and others are not StableCoin, something that can be used for a more secure currency one that can not be counterfeited. But given the volatility of the market, it is a risk asset. As such, it is a bellwether for other risk markets, it is not a hedge as advertised.
The key price level
January 6, 2021
USD In the 12/14/20 update
December 21, 2020
Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed, so they say.
December 14, 2020
The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.
USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.
December 9, 2020
Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.
“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”
Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
November 30, 2020
The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes
November 18, 2020
Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere
When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.
The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames. Hence
November 10, 2020
The Long Term Readings of the Panic Buying at the Top in August has not been resolved. That peak has produced a wide trading range leaving the bulls rabid and the bears frustrated.
The monthly highs posted from August to date produced a 7 1/2% trading range. TEM’s rule #1 is accurate 99% of the time producing a change of trend (COT).
November 7, 2020
Last week’s rally cleared the decks, producing online forecasts of another 50% advance for OTC
Last week’s rally cleared out CT’s hedge ETFs (short) across the board. The S-T cycles made a low around Holloween and the I-T trends crossed over a bullish combination. For whatever reason the media is spinning, the post-election rally crushed the volatility index, at least in the short term, and holding the higher March/April 2020 levels. But what it did not do is take out the ATH posted on 9/2/20 and the secondary high posted on 10/12/20 held thus keeping the bearish outlook in place, in the face of the bulls reaching for new highs on the weekly bar.