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April 15, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/15/21

Tidal cycles reached an extreme early this week and have flipped to a downward bias.

Obviously, nothing will ever be 100% efficient, nail top tick and bottom tick, it all about being on the right-hand side of the pivot for your timing entry to control risk.

After the Dow low on the 25th, the uptrend was within the scenario. Contrary Thinker is long-term risk-off and the focus is a slow scaling into bear positions, with a focus on the market that peak on MarketMap’s COT time window of February 18 +/- a day.  The Pacrim markets are part of that group.

This week there should be a turning point. As pointed out previously it will be primary for some and secondary or lower for others.  the data table for the week from Market Map is presented here:

4/9 and 4/12 *** 4/7* 4/6&7* 4/8&9  4/14 4/9   4/14 uptrend expected to be dynamic fr. 4/4/thru 4/11

NOTE: the more stars the more weight as a COT date.

The change of trend (COT) was suggested to hit early this week and turn the trend from up to down or up to sideways. Overall it’s been a mixed bag with some strong over from the old leadership. Most of that was terminal advances from horizontal triangles.

The background provided by TEM sees the market’s uptrend as old from the 25th of March. Given the access of bullishness from many quarters, Contrary Thinker does not see the market doing what is expected of her by the majority.

Cycles point lower into the end of the month and that downtrend that began by the Russell should pick up momentum. I also expect the Nasdaq will go back into its funk here going into next week.

 


Take the 45-day subscription trial, which includes the eBook of MarketMap’s 2021/22 cycles, the Special Report “Traits of a Market Panic to make a Fortune PLUS eligible for a long-term discount when you subscribe. 

Do it today, “time waits for no man.”


MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.

Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

April 15, 2021

Trading Market Volatility

It is all about timing market dynamics.

%C is a proprietary indicator I created in the late ’90s as a setup to increase the odds of successful breakout trading. In the early part of the second decade of the new millennium, I created a historical measure of volatility that can predict the force of a move – direction neutral. Furthermore, when combined with %C (no longer free at the app store) into a four extreme matrix it provided more reliable information about pending changes of market conditions or dynamics.

All of which has to lead to the discovery, methods, and better use of this matrix as well as applying it to CBOE’s implied volatility to achieve Alpha.

The following is about one of our long volatility systems – iCahn Hedge; and why we feel it can be used as more than a robust day in day out trading systems but be used with outside timing rules, to avoid risk and enhance opportunity.

The easy way to describe the opposition to new ideas and change is how the idea of robust trading ideas like buy dips is so difficult to contradict. Because they work most of the time, but it is the aberrations that will bite you, and you miss opportunities.

It is the aberrations that are of interest here.

But if you have learned anything from studying and trading the market, is you know that declines come and go, and their velocity and rate of change are faster than the advances.

There should be no question that good traders and sophisticated capital managers take advantage of the available products, given the massive volume.

No matter if you are a system trader using a robust strategy trading for a daily average or use your own forecast methods and apply a trading plan, you can take advantage of long volatility trading while reducing risk.

There are two ways to take advantage of the spikes in volatility the market has every year, and in some years, they are monsters.  Trade like any other robust system, for the average trade only becoming aggressive when VX spikes. Or use rules of engagement to turn status on for the system.

iCahn Hedge system – has a Macro filter built-in and therefore misses a few trades playing defense. Every trade in the past year made $142,984.00 or made 35% on a $400k account, funded at six times max drawdown. A reasonable hedge against the average bear market, which is 36%.

This system among others is going onto the TradeStation Secure Server to be available via the TradingApp® Store. Our TEM set of indicators are uploaded now and the Tidal Wave two-week swing trader is available via this link.

Please be advised.

“As always when reviewing past performance of any nature, real-time executed or simulated, nothing can assure the outcome in the future will be the same or similar, even in the face of the most stringent testing methods.”

Taking every trade over the last 11 years long, only VX futures has good risk-reward numbers getting a high amount of slippage, which equaled $223,000, no including commissions. Sustaining a profit factor of 1.61 and an average win/loss ratio of 1.74. Both providing more than an adequate edge.


To assist traders and professional hedge fund managers, the Technical Event Matrix is provided to help you see the setups before the big breakouts in volatility. The worksheet below is just one example, and these two windows are included with the @VX strategy window on the same TradeStation™ page.

As part of our pursuit of excellence for our traders and capital managers, TMT’s publishing partner “Contrary Thinker” sents all of its clients with or without TradeStation, its MarkertMap-2021 with cycle timing Volaltity reports for market dynamics timing advisory.

Both provide more than an opinion about markets but insights into how the tools from TEM to all of our proprietary indicators are used and what they say.

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2021

Capital Managers and Professional Investment Advisors visit www.ContraryThinker.com.

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options.

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND. Contrary Thinker   MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS.

Keep ahead of the Mob today invest in the new bull market of Contrary Thinking. 
MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.
Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

April 11, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/12/21

Of what proportion is the query. Some markets have already put in their primary highs, so this will be a secondary or a tertiary high pivot for some.

It may not be clear to many there is a difference between various stock averages onshore and offshore. They all do not bottom or peak at the same time. Yet the trends are in gear with each other no matter the time frame being considered.

The topping process started back on 2/18/2021 which happened to be one of MarketMap’s time windows for change. From the FANG index to the Shanghai Dow made their highs.  Refer to the chart gallery used in this issue of Volatility Reports. From the S-T lows posted in on 3/9 and 3/26 – both COTs – the recovery appears spent based on TEM registering TE#3, providing a picture of the price trend as being old, feeble, persistent but due for a change.

Given their price levels on the markets peaking in mid-February being in various forms of technical resistance and that the recovery was into MarketMap’s calendar window for change early this week, and the TEM condition moves lower should begin to pick up momentum.

From the Nikkei, the Emerging Markets Pac Rim, and the FANG gang plus the small-cap via the Russell 2000 (RTY) are expected to make lower high pivots here and begin their next phase of decline. See the first seven charts in the gallery.

With the new highs made by the Dow and S&P, they have rallied into a time frame that has a high degree of confidence for change. Such change is based on the trend direction when entering that time window, which was up. Hence the change should be from up to down or up to sideways.

Chart number eight is the S&P high tech sector, a leadership group. It’s a new high produced by the tension created by the horizontal triangle seen on the chart. This pattern is typically a terminal move, not the beginning of a trend. This late in a long-term bull market the move makes its terminal natural all the more likely. What adds to the likelihood that a major high is in place the TEM signaling seven months of panic buying from the 100 level of the index, which has changed in April signaling the uptrend is old, labored, persistent, and overdue for a change, a TE#3. Risk is over 40% and as the buying was irrational, without reason, flipping the investors will be based on their investments going underwater.  From a tactical point of view, waiting for the initial decline and pull back over the next four weeks, is the plan before any new shorts in that sector or similar.

Going into the major and final top may still be pushed out into mid-May, May 11 +/- 2 days, the Dow and the S&P may hang in there. But the last chart in the gallery of the Nasdaq reflects a double top, the failure to make a new high is bearish. The chart shows the same volatility background of a long-term panic buying peak followed by that FOMO advance fading into a lumbering yet persistent trend that is overdue for a change.

The overall outlook is for an S-T should peak early this week and markets should be lower over the next 10 days two weeks. The debate of what the final high pivot will look like is academic here. If the Dow and S&P make new highs in Mid-May or only secondary peaks does not matter. What matters from a Long Term point of view is risk-off and patience. From a strategy and tactics point of view, it’s waiting for low-risk entry points for bear trades and adding to the weakest markets as momentum picks up to the downside.


Take the 45-day subscription trial, which includes the eBook of MarketMap’s 2021/22 cycles, the Special Report “Traits of a Market Panic to make a Fortune PLUS eligible for a long-term discount when you subscribe. 

Do it today, “time waits for no man.”


MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.

Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

April 7, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/7/21

Well hang on there, not so fast.

The sentiment is not – as nearly everyone knows – a precise timing tool. Surveys of what members of the American Association of Individual Investors are doing or put/call ratios are all good to know but as a background factor. AT a major turn or an S-T pivot, out of the massive proliferation of sentiment services, not all will be at an extreme of one side of the other. Some analysis will find a source that is unique and preferable, but to date, I have not found anything that works better than my team’s measures of VIX.

You will see below I use two recent charts from the public domain from “SentimentTrader” who from a researcher’s point of view provides some of the better insights around. I show them when my group sees them tieing indirectly to our independent research.

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April 5, 2021

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner Issue #8

The Confluence of Major Long Term Cycles 2021

The change of trend (COT) table presented here provides new users the ability to see how – when the market is in a channel – not a forceful trend – can pinpoint the short-term (S-T) high and lows. The most recent being a low-pivot by the Dow on March 25.  The updated table for the new quarter can be found later in the report.

The Time Factor

It took me over twenty years to put together a comprehensive all-reaching investment and trading strategy. A system that combines price analysis by looking at its volatility background for context to get an accurate forecast of market dynamics (published in Volatility Reports).  Adding into the system the study of time, which is a critical factor that most people do not talk about in my technical analysis field, you hear about everything else but cycles. I believe that is because demarcating time for many is like looking at a craze, only ephemeral events with little use.

But it is the time factor that is critical; if you are going to be able to time the market accurately along with its dynamics, you need to time the change of trend (COT) to be accurate and achieve alpha. But if your analysis of the coming dynamics is not valid, your COT could lead to nothing but a flat market. So, context and cycles are essential to complement each other.  …”The Time Factor” continued below

Please Note because of “hyper-correlation,” the COT table pertains to all markets. So as a generality, if the market is advancing into a COT date window, expect a pivot, and if the market is declining into the COT time window, expect a low. The dynamics are predicted via the Technical Event Matrix in the LI group and Volaltity Reports. 

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March 31, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/1/21

The bottom line is anything in excess will kill you sooner or later. No one needs to tell Powell or Yellen this; the facts are the road back to normalcy will be a rocky one.

The S-T two-week tidal model used by MarketMap-2021, our scenario planner, has been accurate this year when contained within this ascending channel since the March/April 2020 low. The first chart used today shows the easy “in on the open out on the open” two-week cycle filtered by our “Alpha Trend Tracker.” Available now on the TradingApp Store of TradeStation, includes CT’s publications. http://bit.ly/AlphaTrendTracker

The tidal cycle without filters is reliable for backing the trader up with his S-T bias and keeps him on the front foot when to expect change.  More on that in the newest issue of MarketMap-2021 Scenario Planner coming soon. It is a critical tool used to help discern bigger cycle change of trends when nesting them with the volatility background expecting a change in dynamics.

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March 25, 2021

Volatility Reports 3/25/2021

The start of the bear remains unnoticed

The calendar count starts with the Dow price high on March 18, 2021, and closing high on the 17th. There is more to a bull or bear market than an arbitrary definition like you will find in Investopedia. There are particular characteristics of each that differentiate them from countertrend corrections, seen by the definitions in retrospect only.

Point is that thus far there are no flags being thrown by the social media types that a bear market has started. Rather than the value class of shares, the economic cyclical companies will save the bull market in the face of the previous leadership being sold off.

The markets from the start of 2021 have given many warnings, price-based warnings overlooked by the

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March 23, 2021

Volatility Reports 3/24/2021 Gold/Dollar

Gold entering a waterfall decline

The gold market from the panic high on August 6, 2020, a double top and a terminal thrust from the massive multi-month horizontal triangle has been drifting lower since. That drifting has been in a near-perfect descending channel, as you can see on the two middle chart windows, the weekly bar.

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March 18, 2021

Volatility Reports 3/18/2021

Good things come to those who wait.

The same patience it takes to ride out the cycle of a cyclical bull market is also required when waiting for the time to move to cash, which began at the end of 2018 and 13 months ago. It also takes a high degree of tolerance for the all-important hedge trades, especially if you are always in the markets, which would otherwise put you and your clients at risk for a 30% to 80% drawdown.

The Long term T-bonds peaked in March of 2020 on panic buying – as outlined by TEM reaching an extreme rule #1 – it still took over five months for the downtrend to cause a MA crossunder; and not until the last 45 days to move out of low gear in the rate of descent.

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March 7, 2021

Volatility Reports 3/8/2021

Social Media Mania

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