May 28, 2021
The FX log jam is breaking.
Part of my checklist for an ultimate peak in the risk markets was for the ultimate risk market to peak and fall on its face. The bitcoin did so, and it did so based on our outlook 4/16/21. Nice call Jack, even though I say so myself. The decline thus far in the early stages of a new bear market, sell rallies long term, if a day trader is careful buying dips now as the panic low is about worked off may continue to work before the trading range comes to an end. But more on that in the next BTC commentary.
May 12, 2021
Worth Repeating: “Price Based Method, Risk/Opportunity Forecast, Strategy, and Plan or Algo System Engaged with Timing”
If you did not read the post from 5/7/21, I suggest that you do, and I will not repeat it here. Instead, focus on the leadership of the bear markets. https://contrarythinker.com/volatility-reports-5-7-21/
The Dow and the S&P are the stalwarts of the old yet great bull market and showed cracks yesterday right on cue with MarketMap’s COT date expected on the 11th +/- a day. CT will wait for at least a few hours before we jump on the short side regarding the old guard.
May 7, 2021
Price Based Method, Risk/Opportunity Forecast, Strategy, and Plan or Algo System Engaged with Timing
It is this last bit that the majority do not get. Rather it’s all about the forecast. The methods and systems often repeat enough that it can not be, by chance, some random event. It’s a simple understanding – like life insurance or a casualty insurance underwriter – to expect losses. The actuaries expect some people to die young. Trader Vic Sporandio teaches the idea of “actuarial thinking” in his approach.
Regarding the market, when we have an “ideal” set up over the long term, the big gains will more than outweigh the small losses. That’s why P.T.Jones and Stan Druckenmiller have outstanding returns. They wait for their perfect – ideal – set up that provides a 25 to 1 opportunity to risk where they can be wrong ten times in a row and still nail it in number 11. Add on top of that Turtle Contract/Share sizing, and you have Alpha.
Too many, if not 90% of investors, managers, and traders hear or read the rationale behind a market or the story behind a stock, all of which are to buy, bullish, for the assets to go up. It’s always happening now because the industry is programmed that way. If not by the sales hyperbole, it’s by the transactional nature of the industry. It’s all about the sizzle, not the steak.
Whereas being able to read the market language provides the analyst and his advisory group of clients and capital managers the steak.
With that in mind, here is the scenario based on a combination of MartetMap 2021 Time Factors and risk assessment with Volalaity Reports dynamics timing.
The Russell 2000 sets up as the low-risk entry because it is on the right-hand side of the ATH or 52-week high pivot. That allows a near buy stop placement. Also, the Volatility Model is telling a story that the RTY is ready for a waterfall trend, a high rate of change directional trend.
The close Thursday at 2238.50 puts the market above these triggers clustered around 2325-2329. Obviously, a day trader would have his bands on the short bars. Here it is on the daily bar for an S-T trade.
The following chart of Russell’s implied volatility reveals a few items that are meaning full. One is the seven-year base and breakout of volatility in February and March of 2020.
The recent 2021 suppression of its volatility testing the seven-year base and holding. Contrary Thinker can also see the potential Bull Trap with RVX ready for an S-T short squeeze. To be clear, Contrary Thinker does not expect a crash from the high, and there may be a mini panic low in late May. the above
The Time Factor
May 3, 2021
Too many laugh when they read ” Sell in May and Walk Away.”
April 30, 2021
Trade the Break
Short Term the stock indices set up for a run, for a day or more. TEM on the three indices shown here provides the context for a forceful trend in the direction of the next break or trend following signal. To be clear, failures to break or to hold support should pick up selling as well.
The charts give an idea of where breaks, failures/reversals, and breakdowns would be triggered. The S-T tidal system is long, as indicated by the blue arrow. As pointed out inverted cycles are normally rapid affairs. So a breakdown here would be a long bar on the day, if not today then early next week.
The next chart highlights Short Volatility Futures funds. They have just finished off a period of panic short selling. The VX inverse ETF – SVXY – goes up as the price of VX declines.
April 28, 2021
Bears are trembling with fear and falling like flies. Bear ETFs are making new lows while their bullish counter ETFs are still 5 to 10% off their ATHs.
From our Contrarian vantage point, that is a good thing and supported by the rest of the world either not confirming the highs set by the S&P or finishing off their advances from the March 2020 low in Long Term (L-T) panic buying as highlighted in my first featured chart.
The chart helps the longer-term trader put the market into a completed cycle perspective. What started at a panic selling low from October 2008 to May 2009 to a panic buying high from January 2021 to date. The World Index, not including the USA, also by various ETW counts, has completed a cycle as well.
This top chart portrays it as an irregular topping process, which implies two things. One, the secular bull market is still intact once the correction is over. But – and you knew there was a but coming – the next leg down is a (C) wave, which is the same form of decline as the first quarter 2020 decline. Moreover, it is of a larger proportion with risk from the 2021 resistance zone shown from 504 to 578 to the support zone for 2021 that runs from 207 to 278 or 62%—a fib-ratio to boot.
The next featured chart shows an alternate pattern, an expanding triangle, which puts the market’s March low in a 4th wave position and makes the advance from the March 2020 terminal, the end of the secular bull from 1974, or the 90-year cycle low of the 1930s.
The post triangle rally was a neat 1.618 of the triangle’s width, putting it right on target today.
Lastly, the Technical Event Matrix (volatility modeling) provides the same clues that a panic – irrational – buying period is putting a major top in place. CT’s volatility of implied volatility shows that the background is at an extreme level of complacency, measured by %BB-VIX (left-hand window).
Not good if you are on a pub crawl with your trading buddies and caught up in the trend is your friend mentality.
The vertical lines highlighted when the last extremes were reached at both tops and bottoms and that the same setup is happening in the current time frame.
Regarding the “Time Factor,” MarketMap-2021 Issue #9 will be out by the end of the week. In the meantime, refer to the map shown below for members only.
April 27, 2021
JG Wentworth Tells it like it is: “It’s My Money & I Need It Now.”
In Jerry Maguire’s words, “Show me the money.”
Immediate gratifications never go out of style. Everyone is a day trader, a scalper, even if they have a long-term investment time horizon.
April 25, 2021
A top is in place, and a more decline is expected.
Volatility Report of 4/16/21 did not mix words when it said, “The volatility background provides a setup for a 30% to an 80% fall in the next 30 to 45 days.” That forecast was based on both our timing method and our dynamics model. Our current work expects the decline to pick up speed, not based on some wild guess to get publicity. Rather Contrary Thinker’s methods, which include the curation of social media content all of this is excited about the “new game” on the street and speculating about what it is going to do next and why. All of which comes across as “… throwing it at the wall to see what sticks.”
For the EWT petitioner, the decline unfolded in a nice and neat five-wave structure, calling the larger trend down. Thus far, the decline has only been 25% in a week, which is certainly not the makings of a currency unless the vendors have a wide bid/offer spread to cover their risk and dispose of the digital currency at the time of the transaction. That statement can be expended to all the cryptos as not being a substitute for money.
I would add that it will not look much like a hedge when the profit takers are done.
The breakdown level of 58k was taken out on the open. After putting in a near term now at 47.5k, the remainder of the initial targets remain 45k, 39k, 33k, and 25k. The legend of Bitcoin will not go away for the next 20 years. The smoke dream of pennies into tens of thousands was last born in the late 1920s, and the hat cycle is repeating. The question is how many banks – which to all accounts and headlines came to the game late, will have deep enough pockets to hold for the very long term and still maintain client reserves.
It is worth repeating that Contrary Thinker sees BTC as the front runner of ALL “risk taker’s” markets. It is the bell-weather. So goes BTC, so goes the Dow Jones, the S&P, and the world indices.
The featured chart inserted below shows part of our time factor research. The 1 year and a quarter cycle – 65 weeks- began cresting back in January of this year. As with all bullish cycles, it is right hand translated, skewed to the right for its nominal price high, which gives it little time to make it to its cycle low due in June or July.
April 22, 2021
Signs of “reinflation” are clear. One of them is the Aussie buck leading the way.
What is also clear is the AUD had finished its first leg up in EWT terms, with a five-wave structure in a nice and neat ascending channel. That channel has been broken and a potential head and shoulders top is tracing out the right-hand side of the pivot.
April 20, 2021
March 24 headline from our pages was “Gold entering a waterfall decline.”
No need to rehash the panic buying and double top. CT does not need to look at the charts that say gold pays no dividend; in fact, it has a cost of carrying in some cases. It would be remiss to ignore all the sales pitch briefs itemizing all the “whys” and “what for” backing up the new bull market in precious metals, like the following:
Getting Ready For Gold’s Golden Era
Worried about gold sentiment? Don’t be.
The mainstream view of gold right now is an open yawn, and sentiment indicators for this precious metal are now at 3-year lows despite the gold highs of last August.
Is this cause for genuine concern?
Not at all.
In fact, quite the opposite.
Most investors are totally wrong about gold, and below we show rather than argue why they are missing the forest for the trees.
Unlike trend chasers, speculating gamblers and gold bears, sophisticated precious metal professionals and historically (as well as mathematically) conscious investors are not only calm right now, they are biding their time for what is about to become gold’s perfect backdrop and, pardon the pun, golden era.”
Use the above link if you would like to read more, but a search through LinkedIn public stream you can find much of the same.