• Background Image

    CT Journal

    timing

November 20, 2019

Crude Oil Waiting on the Break

Gain Better Control of your Strategy Engagement with CT’s Technical Event Model

As an example of strategy engagement, the use of the popular and highly reliable horizontal triangle. One of the main reasons some traders don’t do well in the markets is their inability to wait. A key strength of all great traders you will ever read about.

Please, if you know an active day trader who trades daily and is doing what Soros has or what Trout has or Dalio let me know, I will give you a free subscription to VR for 6 months.

In any event, this chart of the crude shows the horizontal triangle we have been watching for a few months. First, Contrary Thinker is not engaged in trading Crude here. That does not mean some systems are not working and some that are working very well.

Key I-T R&S Zones for break

The following numbers are from my %BB-DBR trading Crude Oil. Over the last ten years made 325k with contract management. That’s all good, and that is how the groundbreaking systems development began back in the ’90s and progressed into the first decade of the new millennium.

Today, however, system trading is more sophisticated. It is more like the way most investors and traders think anyway. They make a forecast, and after they have a forecast, they believe they come up with a trading plan – a strategy – to take advantage of the forecast. They typically do this without a highly accurate dynamics forecast and have no timing for the forecast.

Monthly P&L from %BB-DBR Taking All Trades on Crude with TEM coded

Read More

October 28, 2019

Volatility Reports 10.28.19 Risk Markets

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 26, 2019

Volatility Reports 9.26.19 Crude

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 16, 2019

Volatility Report  September 16, 2018

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 15, 2019

Oil at an apex

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 13, 2019

Gold and Deflation

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
July 24, 2019

Bitcoin relative to other historic mega runs

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
July 24, 2019

S-T Outlook for mini Russell

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
June 24, 2019

The Good Bad Attitude, Contrary Thinking

June 11, 2019

Contrary Thinker “beware of froth, its time to sell and hedge.”

At the end of May, the old guard was crowing about the completion of a head and shoulders top. Cramer and associates plus a chorus of perm-a-bulls started to become bearish when the market gapped lower. I pointed out that traditional TA could not make that call with a higher chance of success than 50/50 because the break would not get carry over without consideration of the context behind it.

I pointed out that the short-term background had the market’s May decline labeled old, laboring and due for a change on June 2, and the breakdown of the head and shoulders was a trap. And now the man who would be a guru says the market is frothy. Well, he is right, but he is still a perm-a-bull. Here is what he was quoted as saying:

“…watch now CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday it’s a tough time to put new money into stocks, even as the market posts gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 78 points Monday, the S&P 500 expanded 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite moved up 1.05%. Cramer said investors […]  Click here to view original web page at Cramer: Beware of froth — ‘it may be too late to put new money to work’

Well, there may be a leak in my membership, which is talking to Jim’s TA, that can be fixed. However, all of the primary stock market averages on Monday hit panic buying extreme. My Technical Event Model reached a rule #1, an extreme that calls for a change of trend because of emotional buyers are easy to flip.

The chart here also reveals that time cycle flipped on the Dow ( and others ) to the short side at the low – the odds and other risk/reward stats for this 100% time and price based strategy is on the left-hand side, and there is no money management used. It’s purely technical.

With the markets in a state of panic buying, aka FOMO, and cycles pointing lower into the end of June, ContraryThinker believes that Cramer is right that the market is frothy. However, it’s just not the short term, it is also the Intermediate and Long Term context that supports the downtrend from late April.

error: Content is protected !!