January 14, 2021
The union of European states does not have the same underlying language or the same underlying culture.
Without such the Euro has an inherent emotional weakness to stay together in times of strife.
January 6, 2021
USD In the 12/14/20 update
December 21, 2020
Why take a 50% drawdown risk for the average annual return of 10%? Because major declines can’t be timed, so they say.
December 14, 2020
The traditional move late in the cycle is to buy offshore bonds in a stronger currency than the USD. This tact has worked over the last twenty years but that regime is changing.
USD makes a long-term bottom; one more decline to the low 90s is in gear and touch with the COTs due this week. The bar chart pattern is a horizontal triangle, which supports a thrust lower and a terminal move, not the beginning of a new trend.
December 9, 2020
Contrary Thinker deals in Time, your preparedness, not fear.
“Let me admit something. There is no Bond King or a Stock King, or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, and me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began it’s an incredible liquifying total return journey to the present day an investor that took marginal risk leveraged it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdraws could and in some cases was rewarded with the crown of greatness. Perhaps, however, it was the era they made the man as opposed to the man that made the era.”
Bill Gross, Man in the Mirror April 12, 2013
November 30, 2020
Intermarket relationships are ephemeral, valid for the short to intermediate-term at best. The imputed market wisdom is when gold goes up US dollar declines and while the greenback advances the precious metals go down. But since late September both markets are in a decline; and both into a decline of a major COT time window according to our MarketMap change of trend dates. With today being a key date, November 30.
November 30, 2020
The new decade, the new White House, the old White House undermining the incoming, an influx of inexperienced investors plus measures of market fragility equals major changes
November 18, 2020
Lots of bullish bravado in the social sphere
When the markets ran stops on Monday 11/9/ all the Short-Term charts hit an extreme in volatility modeling, a rule#1. This suggests that the market will not make much progress from that point. Rather it will move into a trading range or a pivotal reversal in the other direction.
The pattern for the small caps – the Russell – is 1-1-1, a panic buying extreme on all three-time frames. Hence