March 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 3/4/21

The Dollar Is Dead; Long Live The Dollar

There are so many false theories and narratives about the dollar and other assets; they are not worth debunking. Advisors and managers should consider the source and the underlying assumptions used to propagate and regurgitate social media content.

To cut through the fog of misinformation, Contrary Thinker listens to the market. The two middle chart windows contain our I-T trend following systems both on buy signals in terms of direction. What gives the most recent buy signal some punch is Technical Event Model’s (TEM) setup.  The weekly bar has %C on a spike, causing a technical event #2, calling for a dynamic trend. The chart on the left is TEM on the perceived risk data, which is on a new TE#2. The last time that happened, there was a 6% move that followed.

February 3, 2021

Volatility Reports US Dollar 2/4/21

The unraveling of the secular bull market in risk assets will come from the renewed secular bull market in the USD that began in 2011.

The redistribution of the wealth from the very top 1% to the 99%, will not blow out the budget or create monetary-based inflation, not turning the USA into a banana republic. I understand why the majority have a hard time getting their head around this when they cater to people with money. But highly unlikely not anyone in the 1%.

Furthermore, long-term Rooseveltian Economics is not Communism – no centralized ownership of assets –  and has the basis for the longest bull market from 1942 to 1966 / 69 / 72, bubble up economics.