• Background Image

    CT Journal

    Volatility

February 25, 2020

Volatility Reports 02.25.20 Risk Markets and Hedge Tactics

While there may be a new shallow set of parameters to  new buy dips with the goal of holding for new all-time highs, there are no signs of a meaningful bottom here

The short term volatility model is only showing the Dow hitting a panic event while it was entering I-T support. In a vacuum that is a sign for a snapback today, but follow-through is doubted.

All the markets after yesterday’s decline look very similar so the Dow is as good of a proxy as the others.

From the left, OB/OS readings remain overbought after the 3 1/2% sell-off.  It is also easy to see the shallow – buy dips – in the uptrend via the weekly chart. I highlight each with a vertical green line. The low-risk buy is highlighted in red, a situation which does not exist today.  In fact, our twin paid of oscillators are not even modestly oversold.

On a S-T basis, the daily bar, CT’s panic index has hit 70.57 and our twin oscillators are modestly oversold and in gear.

In MarketMap-2020 I pointed to the early February low and a mid to late February high.  The date range for a low was the 5th to the 9th and for the high from the 16th to March the 2.

The tidal cycles will be flipping over to point lower today and Wednesday for the stock indices. A recovery today or tomorrow should be greeted with additional selling.

Lastly, once a low is made it will be tested within days before there can be much confidence in its ability to hold, short term.

Short term the decline is expected to continue into the early March period, with the 9th and 10th being ideal.

If this is the first leg down of a new bear market, do not expect a larger down day than witnessed yesterday.

Long term investors and capital managers should be in cash or two-year notes.  More long volatility ideas on the way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2018

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND. Contrary Thinker   MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS

November 20, 2019

Crude Oil Waiting on the Break

Gain Better Control of your Strategy Engagement with CT’s Technical Event Model

As an example of strategy engagement, the use of the popular and highly reliable horizontal triangle. One of the main reasons some traders don’t do well in the markets is their inability to wait. A key strength of all great traders you will ever read about.

Please, if you know an active day trader who trades daily and is doing what Soros has or what Trout has or Dalio let me know, I will give you a free subscription to VR for 6 months.

In any event, this chart of the crude shows the horizontal triangle we have been watching for a few months. First, Contrary Thinker is not engaged in trading Crude here. That does not mean some systems are not working and some that are working very well.

Key I-T R&S Zones for break

The following numbers are from my %BB-DBR trading Crude Oil. Over the last ten years made 325k with contract management. That’s all good, and that is how the groundbreaking systems development began back in the ’90s and progressed into the first decade of the new millennium.

Today, however, system trading is more sophisticated. It is more like the way most investors and traders think anyway. They make a forecast, and after they have a forecast, they believe they come up with a trading plan – a strategy – to take advantage of the forecast. They typically do this without a highly accurate dynamics forecast and have no timing for the forecast.

Monthly P&L from %BB-DBR Taking All Trades on Crude with TEM coded

Read More

October 28, 2019

Volatility Reports 10.28.19 Risk Markets

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 28, 2019

Chart Gallery Big Turn September 28, 2019

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 26, 2019

Volatility Reports 9.26.19 Crude

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 16, 2019

Volatility Report  September 16, 2018

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 15, 2019

Oil at an apex

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 3, 2019

Bottom Up all time frames TEM Video

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 3, 2019

Short Term Risk with Video

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 13, 2019

Gold and Deflation

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!