Trade Markets App
December 16, 2021
The alchemy of trading volatility (VX) is not magic for the fool. You must be the sorcerer and not his apprentice
Cycle peaks are clustered in this time frame, from the peak on Nov. 18 for the Dow into today the 16th and fill out Monday the 20th. They all relate to their own 2 to 2 1/2 year cycle, which creates a variance of a small degree. One cycle is 2.2353 years, for example. To pick out a few notable ATH pivots caused by the 2-year cycle, a similar cluster hit in April of 2000, another July of 2007, and again in August of 2008, also mid-January 2018, among others.
A similar configuration of cycles converged at the March 2009 low +/- 1 month.
While nothing here is perfect, there are four major 2 1/2 year cycles hitting now +/- a few days that are known for their influence to change the direction of the markets.
With volatility modeling calling for a period of volatility breakout and weekly range expansion. Plus, traditional TA – like the AD line, and the 52 weeks high/low ratio among others giving “off risk” signals, the cluster of change of trend (COT) market events should not be ignored.
Even if you have been on the early side of the selloff leaving some investors and traders to deal with a wide trading range and their stop’s being hit, hang in there. Like the famous trader Marty Swartz double down, if stopped on attractive positions.
Online Trade Idea Products:
High Delta Short-Term Puts and Calls,
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You do not hear this hard and fast rule promoted by the industry, but it is the grounding principle for successful trading, “The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservations of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” Stanley Druckenmiller. It is not only Stanley but the best from P.T. Jones to Richard Dennis. Do not take suboptimal trades.
In the mid-’80s I was mentored by Bob Prechter at EWI and his mentor Dick Dimond. Dick teaches time of day execution and I learned to use EWT and time of day timing to make a small fortune trading high delta OEX 100 puts and calls.
I made my first fortune in the 1987 trading delta and was long put in the crash. The goal and policy of this product are to find trades that are greater than doubles with small relative risk, using lower risk deep in the money puts and call options on stocks, segments, and the averages.
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“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservations of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” Stanley Druckenmiller. It is not only Stanley but the best from P.T. Jones to Richard Dennis. “Do not take suboptimal trades.” That is do not trade for an average, why take the risk! This is head and shoulders above the industry. With that in mind, the method isolates trades that are 10 to 1 or better reward to risk setups. With such a method, one winner will be able to overcome most drawdowns.
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It’s like the 10-1 program, the focus is more on the percent win rate, but still, the focus is risk management. The trades are short-term less than four weeks, with price-based profit targets nearer to entry for a 4 to 1 reward to risk ratio. It trades leveraged ETFs on the stock averages, offshore stock averages, and S&P sectors and micro sector ETFs
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The focus is on intermediate-term trends, where the reward to risk precondition can be anywhere from 5 to 1 or as high as 10 to 1 sometimes better. The focus here will be on new bull market leadership after bear markets and fad sectors that fall out of favor. The universe of ETFs here includes everything except the standard stock averages and S&P sectors.
Here is everything you need to see all of my trade ideas in detail on your phone, for just $10/month.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR
25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
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