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    Volatility Report 7/1/24

    July 1, 2024

July 1, 2024

Volatility Report 7/1/24

Context, Price, Time, and Sentiment

These four eleemnts provide the complete picture of the market. To forecast, to have a vision of the future, you need all four, price structure alone is just now good enough and even the best at the various methods of forecasting based on price always fall back on sentiment or valuations as a secondary validation.

The same way I am a puro when it comes to cigars, 100% Cuban or 100% Dominican, I am 100% technician from day one.

For example, here is a problem that requires a bias preceding the forecast, the two counts seen here on the Nikkei Dow are equally valid, break no rules and have the right look.

Inside the group there are others who do EWT, and I welcome their preferred count based on EWT alone. That is without getting into fundamentals, which is the way the CMTs have gone.

If the Expo is not cynical there will be no argument from me, I will let the market be the arbiter. In the meantime, today’s “Volatility Report” will bring in the other elements of the comprehensive technical picture and forecast.

 

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