October 14, 2018

Volatility Report October 15, 2018

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Momentum Surge in Volatility

Looking at the CBOE perceived risk data as well as the long volatility futures ETFs (bearish investment vehicles) across the four major indices there is a momentum surge. Our chart on the left of the 3Xbull S&P ETF gives a clear picture of two failed tops at all-time historical highs followed by breakdowns. Following January peak, the February/April low pivoted when %BB-Oscillator was a divergent overbought long volatility ETF “SPXU”– right-hand Our Bollinger band oscillator is not yet at an extreme suggesting more decline to come.

What else is clear is %BB SPXU never moved above .382 during bullish trends. Looking back over the complete history of this bear ETF %BB-Osc only moved above .382 when the market moved into consolidation at least or a meaningful correction. With that being the context of the market now on an I-T basis, expect more decline.

Bottom line is our measures on V have surged past a point that implies follow through or lower prices for the major averages.

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