CT Journals
Blog
June 24, 2022
“No Free Lunch” Milton Friedman
“The times they are a changing”
I have pointed out that good market research provides insights into the change of trend (time) and dynamics of the trend (context) and direction of the change (price). The problem comes when the market’s vibration (oscillation) changes. When an expected low happens but from a strategy point of view you have tightened up your profit-stops protecting profits yet have to provide a smaller profit as opposed to taking a larger profit when the change was expected.
The problem is – as you will see in the chart- at some point when the trend is expected to change point (in terms of time, price and dynamics instead it will be an acceleration point, which is what we are in the game to capitalize on. In other words to max out the profits.
CT pointed out going into this week – with a redraft and update regarding one-day wonders and suggested the COT should produce a rally and potentially a one-day wonder. The market gave us what we expected and in panic buying, (poor) right into MarketMap’s change dates expected next week.
The featured chart here shows the 60-year cycle side by side. Moreover, the way a bear dies is when investors are throwing stock away at any price. I’ve highlighted that in the 1962 chart. That capitulation has yet to happen in 2022.
And no humankind has not evolved beyond being human and it will happen again. What the 2022 bear market has done is cashed in 14% or higher in profits while not getting the media’s full negative attention or the public’s with the AAII cash vs stock holdings is still near historical lows.
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March 1, 2022
Volatility Reports 3/1/2022
Leading Indicator
the leading risk taker’s market is just about finished here with its countertrend. The Bitcoin bulls can’t see past the end of their nose, but that is fine for those of us with vision and foresight.
I know for many some price-based analysis is just not complex enough, because it does not speculate about the whys and how comes and what the pundits contrive to be the meaningfulness of cryptos. While it’s simply a branding game at this point independent of their practicality, given the multi-millions spent on SuperBowl advertisements. So while they fight it out, one thing we know is that Bitcoin is the premier market for risk takers and traders. As such it is a leading indicator of risk taker’s mood.
That bullish mood is
November 9, 2021
Volatility Reports 11/9/21
What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable?
We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal” to the new “Gilded Ages” pro-business laissez-faire now called neoliberal, aka new liberal. What also changed from 1980 to date is the configuration of the house/senate and the president’s parties. Gridlock has been the configuration of governmental power in the majority over the last 40 years.
November 2, 2021
Volatility Reports 11/2/2021
It’s not the train you hear that will kill you
In my early days, the talk use to be that a good market analysis got off wall street to get away from the pressures of the industry so he/she could form an objective point of view. Well from Gainsville to Sedona many of taken that advice. If distance matters, well living half the time in the land of Oz, the down under, should put me in a superlative environment. Well yea, ok maybe.
But a nearby journo Mark Saunokonoko, a print, online journalist, and feature writer published by the Australian 9News Network “Ten scenarios that could rock the world in 2022.” Where Mark did a good job isolating none market events, outside world events, that could have a dramatic impact on the 13-year-old “Great Bull Market” Here is his list, my thoughts, and a few others you may have to put your ear to the ground to know something is coming.
He has grouped the ten possible threats this way: ”
