• Background Image

    CT Journals

    Volatility Report (click title for full report)

September 29, 2022

Volatility Reports September 29, 2022

Sizzle or Fizzle?

I never thought a headline phased as a question was a good way to introduce a news article or a research brief. A question reflects doubt, and I think readers want answers, not more questions. Be that as it is this morning, our pals at the “Seeking  Alpha” mailer is headed up with that query, which I assume reflects the doubt permeating the gaggle of content-providing market observers.

Tie that in with other mainstays of the personalities on financial networks which have either given into bearish notions with observations that “late cycle” economic events are happening that preclude the beginning of a new bull market, or the manic sales type permeating the podcast airways and popping up on Fox business who has gone nuts over the revelation that he has found a relationship between Cryptocurrencies – the stock market and the US dollar. “if the USD would break below 103 it be like 2017.” If not it’s the bear city.

Well ok then, that ties into the notion of a breakdown finally after nine months of correction is the fact that the perma-bulls are giving in. Both on social media and cable channels and it’s time to run with the herd.

Well, let’s start with what we know, we know that a bear market while larger than corrections, still corrects something.

The people at Charles Swabb put it this way, “It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend. Is It the Start of a Bear Market?

Well according to the compliant sell side phrase “Nobody can predict with any degree of certainty whether a correction will reverse or turn into a bear market.” 

On the contrary, there is a risk in the market from here of 10,000 Dow points and it is correcting the FOMO buying that pushed prices into their ATHs at the end of 2021. 

The featured chart here is annotated for anyone in the public domain to review. Members already have seen the additional details on how the Dow will get there when it will get there, and the why of the risk assessment.

With a high degree of certainty in Mid-May 2011 Contrary thinker told its people “off risk.” and this has not changed since that date. You will not hear anyone disputing this fact.

We suggested to our people to sell into rallies and hedge their accounts.

Contrary Thinker was provided the opportunity of a private channel on the Smartphone app “Trade Exchange” and we took it.  Our market opinions and positions are our own and do not reflect the opinion of any of the principles of  Trade Exchange, while we hope that they have made millions from the ideas

(click to enlarge)

With that said, from the ATH that we called in the NASDAQ on 11/19/21 our middle-risk big swing ETF bull and the bear trading products to date performance is on the left on the screen grab here.

 

 

 

For investors, hedge fund managers who want to reduce their cost of carrying the hedges, deep-in-the-money options traders, and aggressive traders who swing trade the futures here is how our trade ideas have done on a 100k account from November 2021 

In the past 11 months, Contrary Thinker’s trade ideas on 100k made it into over $1 million USD today.

(click to enlarge)

 

Trade Ideas? We do things the old fashion way. Contrary thinker provides support and market analysis to form the basis of the trades and get that to our informed membership and LinkedIn private group members.

You are dealing with a team led by a veteran with over 30 years of experience and suggest that if you are not experienced and have a low threshold for account balance changes, you look elsewhere.  If you can take a loss, all you have to do is get the app, pay me $10/month, and after that a nominal incentive fee only on winners greater than a preset threshold. I have to win for you to make money.

On Shore USA, yes? Use this URL https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Offshore go to your local app store and get the free Trade Exchange App, after installing it on your handheld, use the URL from your handheld device. https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Let me know when you are on board, so I can get you into the group.

Work up your own trade plan based on some of the best and most complete research in the industry. 

Quarterly Membership $249.00 Six-Month Membership $425.00 Annual Membership $749.00

Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Thanks in advance for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

September 28, 2022

Volatility Reports September 28, 2022

Context Gives Significance to Price and Time

The long-term background remains in an expanding monthly range condition,. Hence a breakdown to new lows would suggest a

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 18, 2022

Volatility Reports Crude Oil 9/19/22

Contrary Thinking is not about being contrary just for the sake of being contrary.

 

Sometimes you have to run with the herd and follow the trend. Looks like Fidelity is sounding a tad bearish. One of their leading managers posting in the public domain, “The fact that low beta (utilities) and late-cycle (energy) sectors are leading (showing superior relative performance ) tells me that this is not (yet) a new bull market.”

The parenthetical is my needed explanation, as bulls always think that going down less than the average means “leading.”

Is $60 a barrel from here before the end of the year possible?
You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
September 15, 2022

MarketMap™ September 15, 2022 #19

When you have the enemy on the run, in retreat, you must pursue them relentlessly.

Volatility means big swings up and down. The news media has picked up that word as its euphemism for a market decline. However, it is volatility that is the trader’s live blood as opposed to the lack thereof for the bull-only long-term investors that simply buy and hold.

If you have looked at enough daily bar charts with the 200-day simple moving average you will see that when prices are above it, the changeability of the market is low, it’s steady as she goes. However, once the market drops below the 200 day that is where all the action is for traders.

This featured chart provides a textbook example of what two very different long-term opportunities look like.  The stats that are always quoted are from the 1950s,stating: “the S&P 500 has fallen >4% in a long bar 55 times.  49 of those times happened beneath the 200-day MA.  As you can see, before 1950 the same truth applied, as 90% plus of all long bar days happen beneath the 200-day.

This Macro change in the context of the market dictates if one invests or trades (both long and short). If you are so indelibly programmed to think only in terms of investing, the next ten to twenty years will be a depression for you.

MarketMap’s primary cycle chart suggests the next meaningful low,

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 28, 2022

Volatility Reports August 29 2022

Contrary Thinker’s headline two weeks back said something like “the bulls were getting ready for an island vacation.” Well, they got what they may not have expected (See Nasdaq chart.)

Either way I look at the market, from the ground up or from the top down, Dow & Co. does not look well. From an Elliott Wave point of view – the theory everyone loves to hate – the intraday bar on all the majors is a clear bearish pattern. A nominal five wave count, calling the larger trend lower.

I will let the coming issue of MarketMap discuss the time window to expect a change, the long 1,000-point decline on the down produced the most radical downside momentum. A situation is more typical of the middle of a move, not the end of one.

On the right-hand side are textbook examples of an Elliott wave count, pointing out that only one of the three motive waves can be extended, while the other two are similar in length. If we take EWT in isolation the suggestion is a 3rd wave extension is unfolding now and there should be immediate carry-over near the open in New York, or as soon as the overnight globex.

Volatility Model (the Technical Event Model TEM)

 

The four major cash indices shown here have near identical backgrounds working off an expected period of range expansion calls Technical Event #4. As a rule, it means “trade the break.” From left to right the Dow had a breakdown below intermediate Support, the S&P broke down below our smooth Bollinger Band, The Nasdaq Composite broke below its Short term (S-T) support zone and the Rusell’s moving averages touched off to hight light its reversal. In effect, the four indicators are inter-changeable last Friday and all gave the same message, sell on an S-T and Intermediate-term (I-T) basis.

TEM on the close is not near a new extreme suggesting a change of trend. P.S the blue highlight on the Nasdaq chart depicts a bearish island reversal.

Compounding the worries

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 15, 2022

Volatility Reports the “Back Story”

Based on the confusion propagated between politics and the rule of law taking advantage of an uneducated electorate,

What will the civil war look like?

Man Crashes Car Into Capitol Barricade, Opens Fire, And Kills Himself

Click here to view original web page at Man Crashes Car Into Capitol Barricade, Opens Fire And Kills Himself

A man drove his car into a barricade at the US Capitol early Sunday morning and, as it burst into flame, he exited the vehicle and began “indiscriminately” shooting a handgun. As US Capitol police approached him, he shot himself to death.

According to a statement issued by Capitol Police:

Just after 4:00 a.m., a man drove his car into the vehicle barricade at East Capitol Street and Second Street. While the man was getting out of the car, it became engulfed in flames.

The man then fired several shots into the air along East Capitol Street. When our officers heard the sound of gunfire, they immediately responded and were approaching the man when he shot himself.Volatility Reports the \

“It appears that the individual may have started the fire himself as he was getting out of the car,” said Capitol Police chief Tom Manger at a Sunday morning press conference. He described the attacker as firing a handgun “indiscriminately.”

 

A police officer examines the charred street where the assailant’s vehicle struck the Capitol barricade and burst into flame

Five US States Will Decide If the 2024 Election Can Be Stolen

Click here to view original web page at Five US States Will Decide If the 2024 Election Can Be Stolen

Politicians who dispute the outcome of the 2020 presidential election are on the ballot this year for offices that could determine how the 2024 election is decided in swing states—regardless of what voters intend.

Donald Trump’s effort to overturn his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden failed, but his loyalists have never stopped trying to turn the US election system into one that would return him to the White House in 2024—fairly or otherwise.

In the last two years, Republicans have sought to remove state officials who wouldn’t manufacture votes and falsely declare him the winner. They changed the way elections are run in response to his conspiracy theories. Most importantly, they’ve nominated people who insist Trump won as candidates for US Congress and governor, and for offices that certify the outcome.

Volatility Reports the \Volatility Reports the \Volatility Reports the \Volatility Reports the \Volatility Reports the \

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The want to be usurper are from left to right

Tudor Dixon  Governor nominee Michigan
“Steal an election then hide behind calls for unity and leftists lap it up.” Detroit Free Press
Dixon repeatedly tweeted that the 2020 election was stolen and accused Democrats of “obvious” and “sloppy” voter fraud.

Doug Mastriano Governor nominee Pennsylvania
“There is mounting evidence that the PA presidential election was compromised.”
Twitter
As a state senator, Mastriano held his own hearings on the 2020 election, privately lobbied the Justice Department to investigate fraud claims, attended Trump’s Jan. 6 rally on the Ellipse and briefly led a partisan review of the results.

Kari Lake Governor nominee Arizona
“America knows the 2020 election was stolen. America knows President Trump was the true winner.”
Twitter
Lake has claimed that Democrats stole the election and said she would not have certified Arizona if she had been governor in 2020.

Adam Laxalt US Senator nominee Nevada
“There’s no question they rigged the election.”
NBC News
A former Nevada attorney general, Laxalt filed several lawsuits seeking to overturn the 2020 election and made baseless claims of widespread voter fraud. As a senator, he would be in a position to vote against certifying the election.

Tim Michels Governor nominee Wisconsin
“Certainly, there was a lot of bad stuff that happened. There was certainly illegal ballots. How many? … I don’t know if anybody knows.”
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Michels has said “no one knows” how much fraud there was in 2020 and that “maybe” the election was stolen and wouldn’t say whether he would certify the 2024 election if he is governor.

 

Former FBI Assistant Director Says ‘Handful In Leadership’ Are Politicizing Bureau, Following Mar-a-Lago Raid

Click here to view original web page at Former FBI Assistant Director Says ‘Handful In Leadership’ Are Politicizing Bureau, Following Mar-a-Lago Raid

Authored by Scott Wheeler via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Years of investigations have led to claims by Republicans of partisan political power plays at the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice.

A raid on former President Donald Trump’s home on Aug. 8 has sharpened the nation’s focus on what many Republicans have been raising alarms about for years—the politicization of the Justice Department (DOJ) and its law enforcement arm, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Republican U.S. Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa has been demanding answers about alleged politicization well before the raid.

“Unfortunately, a growing number of Americans have lost confidence in the bureau based on its inconsistent handling of politically sensitive investigations, its lack of cooperation with legitimate congressional oversight inquiries, and its failure to hold its own people accountable for their misconduct,” Grassley told The Epoch Times.

 

Similar Cases Involving Democrats

In 2015, former Secretary of State and presidential candidate Hillary Clinton came under FBI investigation for concealing classified information on an unauthorized email server she kept at her home. During that investigation, Clinton deleted emails that were under subpoena. The FBI, which was in charge of the investigation of Clinton, did not conduct raids at any time and allowed Clinton and her attorneys to negotiate what evidence Clinton would turn over to the bureau and dictate the terms in which Clinton would be interviewed.

FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies during a hearing before Senate Judiciary CommVolatility Reports the \ittee at Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Aug. 4, 2022

. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

 

 

Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago was a ‘nightmare’ environment for housing classified documents, experts say

Click here to view original web page at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago was a ‘nightmare’ environment for housing classified documents, experts say

The seizure of classified US government documents from Donald Trump’s sprawling Mar-a-Lago retreat spotlights the ongoing national security concerns presented by the former president and the home he dubbed the Winter White House.

  • The FBI seized 11 sets of classified information from the property, revealing an investigation into Mr Trump for possible violations of the Espionage Act and several other lawsMr Trump is under federal investigation for possible violations of the Espionage Act, which makes it unlawful to spy for another country or mishandle US defence information.As president, Mr Trump sometimes shared information, regardless of its sensitivity.Early in his presidency, he spontaneously gave highly classified information to Russia’s foreign minister about a planned Islamic State operation while he was in the Oval Office, US officials said at the time.But it was at Mar-a-Lago that US intelligence seemed especially at risk.The mansion and private-members club located in Palm Beach County in Florida was Mr Trump’s luxurious winter home.Read More: Click here to view original web page at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago was a ‘nightmare’ environment for housing classified documents, experts say

Media, Democrats Admit They Expect The FBI’s Trump Raid To Bait People Into Violence

Click here to view original web page at Media, Democrats Admit They Expect The FBI’s Trump Raid To Bait People Into Violence

The left would love for conservatives to succumb to violence. Don’t take the bait.

The FBI and media narrative in the days after the FBI’s unprecedented raid on the home of a former president and opposition party leader was one of feigned surprise that such authoritarian tactics would prompt any outrage. Simultaneously, however, media and Democrat figures used the raid to project their expectations of a violent reaction onto their political opponents.

The right’s outrage over yet another high-profile example of federal intelligence agencies applying double standards to Democrats’ political opponents was quickly exploited by corrupt actors such as MSNBC to accuse conservatives like YouTuber Steven Crowder of trying to “agitate for ‘civil war’” with a tweet on the night of the raid.

Crowder clearly meant that as a metaphoric war, something his crew explained shortly after MSNBC trashed him on-air and in an article. But that hasn’t stopped the press and Democrats from egging conservatives, shocked at the politicization of the DOJ and FBI, toward violence — which the former would use like the Jan. 6, 2021, riot to once again punish people on the right far more severely than they punish people on the left for the same infractions.

Leftists consistently use allegations of political violence — whether real fringe violence or the imagined “violence” of free speech — as an excuse to target their enemies. So it’s no surprise that their focus regarding the FBI’s action is not on the fact that unelected bureaucrats rifled through the Republican Party leader’s personal items for more than nine hours without explaining themselves, but that conservatives’ reaction to the abuse of power could include violence.

The truth is, leftists and their cronies in the corrupt corporate media are doing their best to provoke that kind of violence with precisely these outrageous tactics, hoping some MAGA hat-wearing conservatives will do something illegal or something that can be framed as illegal in response to the raid so they are eligible for swift and drastic punishmentVolatility Reports the \

 

That’s why the Washington Post published an article on Wednesday claiming that “GOP hysteria over the Mar-a-Lago search is an invitation to violence.” In the article, Dana Milbank, the WaPo opinion columnist infamous for demanding everyone “give Biden a break,” said “violent speech” like calling for the disbandment of the “tyrannical FBI” will lead to “violent acts.”

The J6 show trial didn’t change the minds of many Americans, but it gave swamp creatures such as Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray the excuses they needed to take down Trump and stop him from running for president again. In the case of Jan. 6, Democrats saw an opportunity to exploit the condemnable actions of a few to incriminate a whole ideology and political party.

The Mar-a-Lago raid is no different.

“If you believe this [raid] is about classified documents, having to do with bullsh-t Trump took with him when he left office, your head is in the sky. This is about Jan. 6 and the never-ending desire to get Donald Trump on something,” Megyn Kelly said in a recent episode of “The Megyn Kelly Show.”

Trump Can’t Envision a Government Less Corrupt Than He Is

Click here to view original web page at Trump Can’t Envision a Government Less Corrupt Than He Is

After FBI agents finished executing a lawful warrant at his Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, Donald Trump made an accusation that was astonishing in its lack of self-awareness, even for him. He said in a statement: “They even broke into my safe! What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat National Committee?”

The difference hardly needs explaining, of course. The goons who broke into the DNC headquarters in 1972 may or may not have done so illegally at Nixon’s personal behest. However, after a couple of weeks, the president’s stooges were engaged in a historic criminal conspiracy following the boss’s orders. The DNC of that era was not involved in illegal activity nor suspected of such. On the other hand, Donald Trump is under investigation by multiple law enforcement agencies for myriad crimes. A judge was impressed enough by the evidence to grant an extraordinary warrant for the contents of Trump’s safe. It’s worth noting that the FBI Director who most assuredly signed off the warrant request is a Trump appointee, and we know the Attorney General did.

Former President Donald Trump plays during the pro-am round of the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament in Bedminster, NJ., Thursday, July 28, 2022. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)Volatility Reports the \

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Ops Veteran Cancels Plans For Sunday Protest At FBI Headquarters After ‘Trap’ Warnings

Click here to view original web page at Special Ops Veteran Cancels Plans For Sunday Protest At FBI Headquarters After ‘Trap’ Warnings

Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the wake of the unexpected fallout sparked by an Aug. 8 media pitch, a military veteran has revised his plans to hold a protest at the FBI headquarters in Washington on Sunday, Aug. 14.

Following the unprecedented raid on the Mar-a-Lago residence of former President Donald Trump, an Aug. 8 media pitch announced that a 20-year military and former Special Ops veteran named Adam Hardage was “calling on fellow veterans and Americans of all walks to join him Sunday 8/14 at the FBI HQ in Washington DC to protest the out of control FBI and its actions against President Trump.”

However, the unexpected fallout that quickly ensued caused Hardage to revise his plans.

It all started with an Aug. 9 report about the proposed protest mentioned in the Aug. 8 media pitch.Volatility Reports the \

The contact information was included in the media pitch for those who wanted to interview Hardage. While Hardage did receive requests for radio and podcast spots, the media relations company that sent out the media pitch confirmed that The Epoch Times was the only print/web news outlet to actually request and receive an interview with Hardage about his proposed protest.

Screenshot of the Aug. 8, 2022 media pitch sent out to numerous news outlets regarding a protest proposed at the FBI headquarters in Washington. (With permission from the media relations company)

Contrary Thinker is just not the market analyst for the professional advisors, managers, and traders. It is a journalist that digs into the real-life reasons behind the rumblings.
MarketMap™-2018 Issue #1 1/18/18

 

You wait, you will pay more.
Quarterly Membership $249.00 Six Month Membership $425.00 Annual Membership $749.00
August 14, 2022

Volatility Reports Tension before Panic

Truth, like light, blinds. Falsehood, on the contrary, is a beautiful twilight that enhances every object.

Data points from the Twittersphere

1. “The Nasdaq Composite Is Back in a Bull Market” WSJ
2. Up 6 weeks in a row.. big intra-week buying each time {see CT chart}
3. Weekly Mkt Mood: Risk-On, Very clean risk-on week w/stocks, commodities higher and bonds and $ lower, VIX snapped its 1-yr uptrend as investors suddenly feel ok w/ 8.5% inflation, Many reasons to think though after ~150+ $SPX points more, it could all come undone,
4. S&P 500 has now reclaimed more than 50% of its bear market decline since January
5. Comparing the current S&P 500 rally to rallies in the 2000-02 and 2007-09 bear market’s 200dma.
6. Just putting this out there for people to see that for the indices (not individual stocks), declining volume is typical of advances like now. Reversal days, off a low, might show higher total volume, but don’t expect that for an up-trending market.
7. 50 DMA Disparity Index, the highest level since Oct ’20.
8. U.S. tech stocks are poised for their longest weekly winning streak since November 2021
9. There is no way prices from 20 years ago still matter, right? Information Technology Sector/SP (ratio) is hitting the same level as 20 years ago and being rebuffed
10. $XLF – Financials did well this week. 2nd best performing sector behind energy $XLE 11. On a relative basis gained some ground this week both on a market cap ( $XLF vs. $SPX ) and equal weight basis ( $RYF vs. $RSP )

Some of the posts lack a takeaway, like #2 “Up 6 weeks in a row.. big intra-week buying each time.”  It reminded me of the top on November 19, 2021 (closing high) preceded by six weeks of advance.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 7, 2022

Volatility Reports 8/8/22 Harbinger of Things to Come

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” George Soros

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 5, 2022

Volatility Reports August 5 2022

 

Social Media Data Points

1. $SPY looks like one of the narrowest ranges of the year. Anemic volume too.
2. We’ve now seen 4 selloffs and 4 rallies in the S&P 500. With the last two selloffs taking the market down > 20%, it makes sense we got the largest rally so far.
3. QQQ’s running into overhead resistance. This is an important potential inflection point. We are quite overbought. At the March top, QQQ was 6.5% above 50dma; Today we are at 9.7%. Yellow light! Looking to short tomorrow IF we take out today low.
4. Most recent breadth surge brought 22.9% of S&P 500 members to new 3-month highs, quite close to 23.4% in late April … not consistent with spikes seen in mid- and late-2020, as well as mid-2021
5. Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures–bets on where investors think the S&P 500 will go–turned bearish in Jun and got more bearish since. That’s despite a big rally in Jul. Implies that many still think this is a bear market rally and we could dip back down. {based on the net non-commercial e-Mini S&P500 positioning}
6. Sometimes it is important to remember that the second year of a new President isn’t that strong historically.
7. Then it is even more important to remember that the following year can be quite strong.
8. Financials not able to hold support on a relative basis
9. The approximate yield 2.75 on the 10-year. That’s the line in the sand.
10. $TLT $NDX $QQQ iShares 20+ Yr TSY ETF and the Nasdaq-100 have moved essentially the same this year, down almost exactly the same. Is it really just too simple to acknowledge that simple discounted cash flow math can explain so much more than macro or recession discussions?
11. Big area here for gold. Back to the scene of the crime where it gave up support/$1800. #gold $GLD $GDX

The positive correlation pointed out in the last day or two and highlighted today by a professor in the LinkedIn social stream, was highlighted by me five months ago, in February 2022. See the post via this link, https://bit.ly/3d3dudz

 

 

Contrary Thinker’s Positions:

  • US Equities, Long Term (L-T) bearish, I-T peaking, S-T pivoting
  • US Government Bonds and Notes, Long Term (L-T) bearish, I-T peaking, S-T pivoting
  • Carbon-based energy markets I-T top in place
  • Green Energy Sector L-T bullish, I-T bottoming, S-T bottoming
  • USD and inverse FX for trading partners, AUD, EUR and JPY, Long Term (L-T) Bullish, I-T topping process, S-T topping process
  • Cryptocurrencies, L-T bearish, I-T Topping process, S-T high pivot in place
  • Precious metals, I-T up trend, S-T topping
  • Industrial Metals Long Term Bearish, I-T up trend, S-T topping
  • Macro Agricultural Industry and Food sector Long Term Bullish, I-T bottoming, S-T bottoming
  • European Stock Market Long-term bear market, I-T topping process and S-T pivot high
  • Pac-Rim Stock Markets, mixed with selective bull market opportunities.

Volatility Report’s featured chart has more to do with price and time than the contextual background of the risk markets. The chart of the Dow 30 highlights the last six times the Dow squared intersected at an I-T high, and that high was coincidental with the regular trading cycle of 6 1/2 weeks. MarketMap™ COT dates are now creeping into the current time window when a low is expected; and as mentioned yesterday in group, it has to invert in order to pull the cycle back into gear with itself. A bearish outcome.

 

Big move trades were placed yesterday on the Trade Exchange app, one is a 10 to 1 opportunity to risk. More to come today and next week, along with traditional hedge ideas.

On Shore USA, yes, use this URL https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Offshore go to your local app store get the free Trade Exchange App, after installed on your hand held, use the url from your hand held device. https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

July 31, 2022

Volatility Reports August 1 2022

Sometimes you’ve got to think they just make it up as they go along, hey?

Everything that I pointed to as potentially S-T bullish 30 days ago is now coming to the forefront of social media content providers, like the surge in the UpVol/DownVolume ratio indicator and the similar A/D issues ratio buy signals. So while it’s the best July since 1939 ( a year that has come up in MarketMap™ 2022 with the 83-year cycle) and they balance that with “oh well June was the third worse in history.” So I will leave this data point for others to ponder.

The language of the Markets

Working from the top down with our Volatility Modeling, here is the background of the market.

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!