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    Volatility Report (click title for full report)

May 21, 2019

Oil prices rise on news that OPEC could extend production cuts

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May 7, 2019

Wall St. analysts believe the retail sector can withstand US-China trade war issues

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April 8, 2019

Volatility Report April 8, 2019

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March 23, 2019

Volatility Report FX March 15, 2019

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March 22, 2019

Volatility Report March 16, 2019

Precious Metals

Everyone in the Twittersphere is jumping up and down about the Bullish triangle set up in the precious metal along with speculation on how it breaks out will negatively impact the yen and the dollar, as gold is the safe harbor for a famous stock market crash.

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February 28, 2019

Volatility Reports 2.28.19

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February 16, 2019

Direction Neutral Risk Assessment

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November 27, 2018

How to Time Long Volatility Strategy

How to use the Technical Event Model

Here is an example of waiting for near 100% certainty set up. The overarching measurement for engagement of the long volatility strategy is our Technical Event Model (TEM).

One reason why a many will ignore this idea is they expect to see profits every calendar period for the system, but consistency is not the point here, at least not yet. Instead, can a trader use a filter to tell him when to trade a market strategy and when to trade it aggressively or not to trade it at all?  That is the point; we can work that into monthly and annual profit consistency later.

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November 19, 2018

No Christmas Party for U.S Markets

Technical Event Model – Volatility modeling

Market backdrop provides a springboard for a dynamic trend.  In the new millennium, the Read More

November 12, 2018

US Dollar Eyeing Key Breakout Level

The dollar has not looked this bullish or as forceful since the 2014 advance that put 25% more buying power into the buck.

 

That 2014 bull run was preceded by our volatility model signaling a 2-2-2. That is a low volatility extreme for all three-time horizons, short, intermediate and long-term. A context that almost always precedes a forceful trend.

The backdrop is the same today plus all of  TMT’s longer-term systems are producing buy signals, which provides traders and investors with direction.

There is a Fibonacci ratio projection for an S-T irregular top at 97.62. If the market fails to break it, that opens the way for a retest of 93.00. Also, you can also see your chart the high side of I-T resistance at 97.99. Given the context a break of that 98 level is imminent. Because the market is now in residence all eyes will be on its ability to break or not.

The market’s ability to breakout will pick up a following with the next stop at our L-T resistance zone starting at 102.04.

ContraryThinker is a long-standing bull on the USD, and from an EWT point of view, it is now entering a third wave,  which usually is – 60% of the time- the most significant part of the uptrend, which fits the above scenario.

Further, a typical relationship is 1.618 times the length of wave one. This ratio projects to 108.55. The high side of long-term resistance is 106.50, but keep in mind on January 1, 2019, the fixed zones are recalculated and pushed higher with the trend.

Standing this outlook on its head is a short-selling opportunity in a variety of currencies, especially the euro, looking at new lows.

Contrary Thinker  1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or  25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

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