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    Volatility Report (click title for full report)

January 11, 2022

Volatility Reports 1/11/22

The Santa Claus Rally is Melting Away.

Since the spring of 2021, it seemed like everyone was waiting for the rush to value stocks. Well after a whip-saw double top the flow of funds into value shares vs the glamour growth stocks is here.

The first chart is the ratio between the two indices.

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January 4, 2022

Volatility Reports 1/3/22

Markets do not experience panic sell-offs from top tick, the clock hit reset by the Dow on the 29th.

Furthermore, breakouts to new highs do not necessitate more bull market. The dilemma is as old as Shakespeare, to be or not to be, or ” do I trade the break or fade the break.

PLUS, I will not make any excuses for a pet peeve here, but smiley faces drawn on stock charts is not TA and they are not chart patterns. If it is not in Murhpy’s book, it is not TA. Rather it’s “making xhit up as you go along.”

I was just saying to some other perma-bull that they can spitball it all they want because the odds of seeming to be correct are backed up by the data on “calendar” annual returns. He put it this way, that in any random year the “odds” of being up are 73%. He goes on to point out the longer you hold, the greater the chances are you are making money.  He concludes that the perma-bears are doing something wrong.

I’ll make sure I will let Jimmy Rodgers know that, but Jimmy is not a rare exception.  I have two heroes, two masters that I take literally in their rules and approach their returns to prove it, George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller.  Their primary rule is 110% ruthless ability to go in for the kill and never let the other side up, which is contradictory to the purported sage wisdom of the industry.

So the pivotal question you and I need to ask is

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January 4, 2022

Volatility Reports 1/4/22

Just as financial repression of rates is unnatural, so is the suppression of risk in free markets. The logical outcome of a riskless market is a market that collapses in on itself because the nature of reward hinges on some amount of risk.

Socialized markets have all the

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December 21, 2021

Volatility Reports 12.21.21

The Short Volatility Play has Run its Course

Contrary to Thinking is more than having a good “bad” attitude, it’s about knowing when to have an opposing point of view and when to run with the herd. It also has much to do with looking at reliable indicators that no one else is looking at. CT likes to analyze the SVXY, an EFT providing daily leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures. It is designed to capture the volatility of the S&P 500, in a commodity pool wrapper. As a geared product with daily resets, UVXY is designed as a short-term trading tool and not a long-term investment vehicle.

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December 12, 2021

Volatility Reports 12.13.21

Trading Fact of life #22:  an optimist is more successful at trading.

They make opportunities out of difficulties. Pessimists will pay attention only to information that fits their point of view. They will see nothing else. Optimists will look for opportunities no matter which way the wind is blowing, long or short.

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December 5, 2021

Volatility Reports 12.6.21

The alchemy of trading volatility (VX) is not magic for the fool. You must be the sorcerer and not his apprentice

The key for my traders this week is that the trend has changed direction. But along with that change is a change in the way the market makes it from point A to point B. The BTFD after a two-day slump is gonzo, and sharp and sudden moves are here to stay, AKA volatility.
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November 27, 2021

MarketMap 2022 Annual Scenario Planner

The most obvious synchronicities of historical events happen at the
beginning of the cycle.
Times when change becomes unavoidable

The first topic I want to highlight here is that the history of the stock market in the states does not start with 1950, which is all I read from the “information” providers regarding their statistics. As if the baby boom was going to last forever, which peaked in 1968. Or, the 100 years of market history that preceded the post WW2 boom was somehow transcended after the 1949 low by a superior emotional intellect.

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November 15, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.15.21 Video Outlook

Contrary Thinker is more than a Contrarian.

Our group created a volatility model that predicts change and the quality of buying and selling. We also founded the New School of Technical Analysis, 100% price based where media provides a back story, after the fact.

 

Traders like Jesse Livermore spoke about his first principle that making big money is by sitting and waiting, not trading. They are waiting until all the factors are in favor of his trading strategy before making the trade.

The modern-day hedge funds control risk by not taking a risk, but once everything is 100% correct based on their comprehensive system or trade plan checklist, they enter the markets and, in the words of Druckenmiller, “go for the jugular, they leverage up throughout the series to maximize profits. This is exactly what the Turtle Traders do with their trend-following systems.

Six Month  Membership only $49/mo
$295.00 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

November 9, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/9/21

What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable?

We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal”  to the new “Gilded Ages” pro-business laissez-faire now called neoliberal, aka new liberal. What also changed from 1980 to date is the configuration of the house/senate and the president’s parties. Gridlock has been the configuration of governmental power in the majority over the last 40 years.

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November 7, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.8.21

They all like to refer to Robert J Farrell and quote his ten rules

But few if any worked for him and the majority pay his rules lip service quoting them in social media marketing as information only.

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