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    Volatility Report (click title for full report)

November 15, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.15.21 Video Outlook

Contrary Thinker is more than a Contrarian.

Our group created a volatility model that predicts change and the quality of buying and selling. We also founded the New School of Technical Analysis, 100% price based where media provides a back story, after the fact.

 

Traders like Jesse Livermore spoke about his first principle that making big money is by sitting and waiting, not trading. They are waiting until all the factors are in favor of his trading strategy before making the trade.

The modern-day hedge funds control risk by not taking a risk, but once everything is 100% correct based on their comprehensive system or trade plan checklist, they enter the markets and, in the words of Druckenmiller, “go for the jugular, they leverage up throughout the series to maximize profits. This is exactly what the Turtle Traders do with their trend-following systems.

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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

November 9, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/9/21

What do we know? What are the facts that are undeniable?

We know that since the Reagan revolution 45 years ago the power regime changed. With that, the fiscal policy of the United States changed. With the 1980 election came a very long-term break from Rooseveltian “New Deal” fiscal policy. By the election of 2020, the major change was clear from the “New Deal”  to the new “Gilded Ages” pro-business laissez-faire now called neoliberal, aka new liberal. What also changed from 1980 to date is the configuration of the house/senate and the president’s parties. Gridlock has been the configuration of governmental power in the majority over the last 40 years.

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November 7, 2021

Volatility Reports 11.8.21

They all like to refer to Robert J Farrell and quote his ten rules

But few if any worked for him and the majority pay his rules lip service quoting them in social media marketing as information only.

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November 4, 2021

Contrary Thinker 11/4/21

I may get frustrated but I am not hallucinating. That the results of all the “lies” from several cable news networks to fringe groups with large internet followings purporting blood-sucking pedophilia circles attributed to the elite undermines the best political system we have for capitalism.

The above reflects Cycle peaks are clustered in this time frame, from the peak on Nov. 18 for the Dow into today the 16th and fill out Monday the 20th. They all relate to their own 2 to 2 1/2 year cycle, which creates a variance of a small degree. One cycle is 2.2353 years, for example. To pick out a few notable peaks caused by the 2-year cycle, a similar cluster hit in April of 2000, another July of 2007, and again in August of 2008, also mid-January 2018.

A similar configuration of cycles converged at the March 2009 low +/- 1 month.

while nothing here is perfect, there are four major cycles hitting how +/- a few days that are known for their influence to change the direction of the markets.

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November 2, 2021

Volatility Reports 11/2/2021

It’s not the train you hear that will kill you

In my early days, the talk use to be that a good market analysis got off wall street to get away from the pressures of the industry so he/she could form an objective point of view. Well from Gainsville to Sedona many of taken that advice. If distance matters, well living half the time in the land of Oz, the down under, should put me in a superlative environment. Well yea, ok maybe.

But a nearby journo Mark Saunokonoko, a print, online journalist, and feature writer published by the Australian 9News Network “Ten scenarios that could rock the world in 2022.” Where Mark did a good job isolating none market events, outside world events, that could have a dramatic impact on the 13-year-old “Great Bull Market”  Here is his list, my thoughts, and a few others you may have to put your ear to the ground to know something is coming.

He has grouped the ten possible threats this way: ”

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October 27, 2021

Dynamic New Trade Posts

Dynamic Trade Page – Full View Spreadsheets

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October 26, 2021

Bitcoin Risk Assessment

 

The Power of the Technical Event Model™ (TEM)

The idea of a precondition aka set up – is for the context of the market to tell you in the simplest of explanations, “if you should trade the trend following signals or trade the reversals of the high to low range.”  Sure the analyst can have a bias for a market’s direction, but the essence of TEM is dynamics timing, not direction. Its power is also based in the data it uses allowing it to measure risk and opportunity in any time frame.

In Forbes TEM was presented this way regarding Bitcoin,

Charles Bovaird Forbes Senior Contributor

The world’s most prominent digital currency may experience sharp volatility over the next few months, according to a proprietary model created by technical analyst Jack F. Cahn.

Technical Event Model (TEM), which he developed in-house and measures extremes in sentiment, is a price-based macro filter that helps algorithmic trading programs predict when market dynamics are about to change and what to expect.

The model, which was designed to be direction-neutral, indicates whether the market is about to break into a new trend or has entered a period of panic buying or selling.

Recently, Cahn wrote that the TEM “suggests a range expansion in October/November.”

More specifically, the technical analyst indicated that his model “is suggesting a monthly range expansion of 20k for Oct and or Nov.”

It might take place “from the open of the month to the close of the month, maybe faster, but the risk is 20k,” Cahn added.


The bold italics are my highlighting of his interview, which allows me to point out TEM’s power. Thus far the BTC has a range of near 20k and may challenge the previous long bar of 30k.  However, the risk remains a bear market back to 13k at least. So long-term investors need to do their risk analysis here as BTC succeeds or fails to hold new highs and move higher.

As the premier risk taker’s market, Contrary Thinker’s sees its background as weak per the above. Hence, it will not take much to change in the market’s direction for new money to flip out of the BTC. Since Profund’s ETF came to the NYSE on the 18th of October, the market’s advance stopped on the 20th and gave back 8k. Not overtly bearish but soft nonetheless.

Volatility Reports predication of a “monthly range expansion of 20k for Oct and or Nov” was on the money. Thus far the range is at 23,500 after hitting its next measured move level as seen in the left-hand monthly chart.

For BTC ($BRTI) to continue its monthly high/low range expansion, the market needs to trigger that movement outside of the current narrow range. A drop below 58k would be bearish and new monthly highs bullish.

Our Short term cycle is still pointing up and our trend-following systems is still bullish. My gut tells me to be looking for a reversal as the books for November open.  The monthly chart pegs risk to 10k. If the market just witnessed a double top, or in EWT terms an irregular top, the decline that should follow will be a forceful high rate (HROC) of change trend. The daily bar’s TEM supports this idea of the trend if a sell is triggered via support break or MA cross-under.

Contrary Thinker makes traditional technical analysis including EWT better, give the membership a go today.


Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,

Copyright 1989-2022

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice, at any time.

— Contrary Thinker does not refund policy; all sales are the finale.

Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND. Contrary Thinker   MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS

October 17, 2021

Volatility Reports 10/18/21

 

Bullish retorts were raining down on Wall Street Friday, “the bull is back baby!”

“Is The Great “Bear Market” Of 2021 Finally Over?”

“Yes, New All-Time Highs Are Coming”

“S&P 500: The Path To 5,000”

“The Second Wave (Of Value Stocks)”

“Sentiment Speaks: Man, This Is A Confusing Market”

But they are missing the big picture

The change of energy regimes, the cultural changes preceding the merging of the staus-quo into something new. The moving beyond the statistical-based social physics and variance into something more attuned to social quantum physics. Maybe you are not in “before time.”

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October 12, 2021

Volatility Reports 10/12/21

Timing is just not everything it is the only thing that matters when it comes to market performance superiority
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October 4, 2021

Volatility Reports

Wedging out a top and TEM both daily bar and weekly bar support an HROC trend.

high beta index trade idea

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