• Background Image

    CT Journal

    Volatility Report

September 18, 2018

Rate frustration coming to an end

The 10-year and 30-year are breaking down

Bonds are coming off another S-T pivot high – triple tops plus one. This peak, however, was set up like the two peaks preceded by low perceived risk. The decline thus far has not increased perceived risk based on the CBOE data, as bond volatility has remained oversold.

Three more reasons to be bearish on T-bonds.

1. A big top was established with the monthly head and shoulder’s top.

2. True North strategy on a short and intermediate basis is short the markets.

3. The volatility background sets up like previous I-T peaks is followed by nice declines.

Our volatility model – the Technical Event Model – on both S-T and I-T  provides a background that supports a high rate of change trend, given the above our bias is to use short selling strategies.

September 15, 2018

The Bubble Indicator

 

1. Prices are high relative to traditional measures

2. Prices are discounting future rapid price appreciation from these high levels

3. There is the broad bullish sentiment

4. Purchases are being financed with high leverage

5. Buyers have made exceptionally extended forward purchases, such as of inventories, to speculate or to protect against price appreciation

6. New buyers have entered the market

7. Simulative monetary policy threatens to inflate the bubble even more.

We have pointed out number six above based on our modeling.

Our measures of volatility show that from October 2017 into the January peak the buying was based on fear of missing out FOMO. The Technical Event Model was in a sustained period of panic buying. Something that is normally an event not an ongoing condition. These late cycle buyers will flip out at the first sign of pressure on their account balance.

In fact, the February decline stopped right at their break-even level of these FOMO players; and from a long-term point of view our targets for the bear takes prices back the surprises Trump win in late 2016.

The chart here has they period of panic highlighted.

Available to CMTs, Capital Managers, and Professional Investment Advisors

Quarterly subscription $449.00 OR Annual Subscription with collaboration $1,599.00

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT
A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2018
www.ContraryThinker.com

— ContraryThinker does not assume the risk of its clients trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options.

NO WARRANTY / NO REFUND.ContraryThinker MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, On ITS PRODUCTS AND At this moment EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN NO EVENT SHALL CBI BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES IN CONNECTION WITH OR ARISING OUT OF THE PERFORMANCE OR USE OF ANY PORTION OF ITS PRODUCTS.

September 13, 2018

Dump Stocks after the Election

“American’s should be very concerned and pay attention” Bob Woodward author of Fear-Trump in the Whitehouse

Read More

September 4, 2018

Majority of Sectors Topping Out

Except for a very few, the vast majority of sectors and the leading FAANG sector is topping out

 

Volatility Report Sector’s Table

Read More

September 4, 2018

Dow 30 Facing Increased Perception of Risk

The Dow 30’s inability to make new highs leaves it as a major non-confirming index.

Read More

September 3, 2018

Volatility Report September 4, 2018

Continued Weakness Offshore Leading the US and Canada

 

The ETF of offshore market EFA is following the Chinese market with a leading diagonal triangle, a bearish chart formation.

Read More

August 31, 2018

Chart Focus September 1, 2018

A Shift in Mood Forthcoming

 

Change of Trend (COT) dates from several independent studies are clustering in the current time frame. It is more than a random outcome. For one reason, the fractal method I use for diverse markets has a pivot – a COT-in the very near future.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
August 6, 2018

Volatility Report August 6, 2018

The outlook has not changed on the stock market, just waiting for the other shoe to drop. While there is another COT date on the 8th, the expectation has been for a mini panic low in the first two weeks of August, no change.

Read More

August 1, 2018

Chart Focus

You need to login to view this content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
May 30, 2018

MarketMap 2018 update

Advanced Rule of Alternation

My work advances the EWT Rule of alternation and builds on the way Robert Farrell understands the unexpected nature of the market. An understanding that made him the top-ranked institutional market analyst on Wall Street for 16 years.

While Bob never spelled it out, he uses natural calendar demarcations to anticipate change to something different. If the first half of the year was characterized by a narrow range, he would expect something different in the second half of the year.

In EWT the rule considers the nature of the alternating corrective waves if the first correction is simple the second one is expected to be complex and vice versa.

This simple notion breaks the linear mindset, a trap for traders and advisors alike.

You need to login to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us
error: Content is protected !!