January 9, 2023

Volatility Reports 1/10/23

The headlines read “Why does everyone think there will be a recession in 2023?”

To be blunt, who cares what they think?  The analysts that are leaning on the contrarian idea that what the little guy does the smart investor should do the contrary know how to talk the talk.

One of the key polls they use is from the American Association of Individual Investors.  AAII is a nonprofit organization with about 150,000 members whose purpose is to educate individual investors regarding stock market portfolios, financial planning, and retirement accounts.

I have to wonder if the AAII membership is self-aware of the above notion they are used like guinea pigs and considered dumb money; and if they are, how does that impact their answers to a poll?

After 2016 we all know that polls are not reliable but actions are more important. What has been seen in the actions of the same group is their equity (risk)  exposure has remained above its long-term average for the trailing 12 months. As such and they think the market is bearish, well that is dumb.

If you see the investment world from a long-only perspective and want a portfolio

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