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    Volatility Reports 1/13/2021

    January 13, 2021

January 13, 2021

Volatility Reports 1/13/2021

Unexpected long bar move is very possible in the current time window – January 13-20

The chance of a secular change is high.  Risk assessment is a drawdown in global share markets of 36% in the first leg

Working from the long term down to the short term, they all reflect FOMO buying at an extreme. The Technical Event Model (TEM) reflects rule#1, an event that is a leading signal of a major change of trend.  Over time it is normally seen at lows but has the same meaning at high pivots. The past year to 15 months across all the popular markets there is a widespread emotional buying that persisted for months, It has shown up in Gold, Bonds, and FANG stocks.

Along with the current extreme high in Tidal Forces, the cluster of change of trend dates provided by MarketMap-2021, an inverted “V” ATH is expected here. One thing to watch is, while I expect a sudden drop like the one that hit Bitcoin recently if the high to low range exceeds 5%, there has to be follow up with the downrange of the following days exceeding that 5%, else the sell off is only a correction, not the kickoff of a major bear.  In the latter case, the major top would come in in April/May as outlined in MarketMap-2021.

The weekly bar is in gear with the longer-term charts, TEM is at a panic buying extreme or the trend has reached a TE#3, calling for a change in trend because the market’s underpinnings are laboring.

The short term chart – the daily bar – has reached a panic extreme except for the Nasdaq 100 futures.  I have highlighted where both S-T and I-T support zones come in for all the indices once the trend turns lower.


The implied volatility part of TEM is giving early warning signals that a high pivot is heard. It is always worth the waiting for getting on the right-hand side of the high pivot to control risk. Furthermore, Contrary Thinker wants as near to perfect set up before taking a risk or putting on a hedge.


The new decade of market timing is here after 13 years of being out of favor. Get ahead of the trends. It’s inexpensive to join and expensive to discard for any reason.  

MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.
Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

 

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