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    Volatility Reports 11/28/23

    November 28, 2023

November 28, 2023

Volatility Reports 11/28/23

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Today’s forecast is for Change

The same ole same ole we had hope to see change with the start of the fourth quarter started on October 27, 2023

With the no look back rally, from the late October low into the two COT dates November 15 and 24 is what trends are made of and expect more of in 2024. Because things change. 2018 was a wide trading range year, 2017 was the lowest volatility market in history, a slow narrow ranged uptrend, is one clear example. The current year has been noteworthy for frustrating trends, false starts in both directions. Last year saw tradable trends into the fiscal year end.

For new readers, the rule of alternation is an abstract universal truth. When applied in the real world, I use manmade demarcations to apply the rule.

Current Bullish Majority

My insight into the current bullish theme of lower rates to come since the Fed has ended their inflation fight does not make sense. The same holds true in the EU, their bullish news drop is the same. But what does make sense regarding their rationalization is that the central banks will have to go back to rate increasing if investors and traders bet on such monetary loosening. I’ll let you finish the logic.

The bullish majority like the idea that the Fed is finished with its rate hike campaign. Yet, yesterday’s big rally in the bonds back to 116 was greeted with little interest in the equity markets as it diverged across the board with dull trade to end the day lower.

The bulls who clamored for the bearish risk on USD, have that as well with the buck still in its short term (S-T) decline.

What is amazing, and I do not use that word lightly, is how all the markets are in remarkably similar looking bar chart patterns. Wedges to be precise. The bar chart of the bonds notes and rates are in the last few bars of an ending diagonal, which looks identical to the one marked out by the Dow and S&P.

Given the extreme bullish sentiment being registered across all bull/bear polling and the CNN greed and fear index, this set up is calling for a reversal. Once you add the time element into the outlook the reversal is imminent, as in today with the MarketMap™ 2023 posting up a COT on the 27th +/- 2 days.

When you bake into the mix what the risk taker’s actions are saying, the outlook is a bellringer.

The remaining element is the CONTEXT all the above exists in. This is not an abstract notion with little application in the real world. We all consider that context to be the news, the media events that are circulated daily, purported to be what the stock market is moving about. What our context is has nothing to do with these outside events. They are technical, they are part of the market, the language of the market. Hence it is called the Technical Event Matrix (TEM.)

The last comment Contrary Thinker posted in this week’s letter related that the averages on a short-term basis had reached a “…TE#3. That background trends persistent but old, feeble, and ready for a reversal.”  Monday’s market persisted in that dull framework and has persisted another night; and all the above folds into place calling for a reversal in the current period. TEM does not need to reach one of the two other extremes (TE#2 or TE#4) to set up a higher rate of change (ROC) or volatility breakout.  More on that will follow, after the reversal.

 

Most of the sentiment numbers you see comes from polls and surveys. Thats all good, but actions “speak louder” and nothing speaks any louder than the Bitcoin market with its millionaire making enticements. It is the premier market for risk takers, as such it reflects the temperament toward risk taking.

In a sentence it is a leading market indicator. Here in this LinkedIn space, we have seen this to be the case repeatedly, giving no less than a same day change with the equity markets. But in the majority a leading signal. It clearly preceded the Dow & Co’s advance from the 10/27/23 low when BTC kicked off its high ROC advance from its 10/13/23 low.

Today that advance has completed. I noted the setup for Bitcoin in this space over the last two weeks to be in a terminal move and that the new recovery highs would mark its finish. All of that is done and a breakdown is expected here.

No hedge here, but one more new recovery high inside the ending diagonal wedge does not negate anything.

Once a year deep discount

 

Sixty Five Percent discount semi annual, new guys and gals only,

Keep this rate for as long as you want. 

 

 

Sixty Five Percent discount for annual, new guys and gals only,

keep this rate for as long as you want. 

 

 

Contrary Thinker’s Membership Levels

Insuring your future in the global equity markets.

 

Team Level One (Junior partner) $99,995.00. 

Three-day personal meeting (Palm Springs CA or Mooloolaba Beach QLD, Aust.) Non-compete and non-disclosure agreement required. One-year mentorship.

Premier Membership,

Global market research publications: MarketMap-2023 Astro Scenario planner and “Volatility Reports”. Membership includes one on one mentorship and TradeStation addons of indicators used in Volatility Reports. Quarterly $539.00, Semi-annual $939.00, Annual $1689.00

Regular Membership,

Global market research publications: MarketMap-2023 Astro Scenario planner and “Volatility Reports”. Quarterly $495.00, Semi-annual $849.00, Annual $1494.00,

Membership Addon, TradeStation™ Advanced Trader’s Package (ATP) all indicators used in newsletters for $195.00/year

Trade Ideas smart phones and tablets, one time set up fee of $10.00, and $10/month to app provider (CC required.) Profit sharing fee structure see below.
Trade Station™ strategy addons

Advanced Trader’s Package (ATP) All indicators used in publications, good forever locked code. Include TEM, indicators, and user functions. $2,495.00

Systems locked code include TEM, indicators, and user functions. All systems package $9,995.00 or bought separately, $3,995.00 each.

Systems open code, all systems $$24,995 or $9,000 each (three swing traders off daily bars and three-day traders off id bars and three scalpers.) Open code TEM is only included in Team Level One.

The system of the month club

$45/month, $445 paid annually.

Private Support Group Only (must have a LinkedIn account as part of the application.) $25 set up fee and $10/month.

***All levels of membership include a LinkedIn support group, the “Strategy Collective” for Trade Station systems, indicators, and code. “Volatility Reports” LinkedIn group for real time market analysis and commentary. ***

Only one profit sharing criteria is set for each ETF and Long Put/Call trades
  • Profit >25% pays $25.00
  • Profit >50% pays $50.00
  • Profit >75% pays $75.00
  • Profit >100% pays $100.00
  • Profit>200% pays $200.00

***I only trade in-the-money contracts***

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

 

 

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