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    Volatility Reports 11/6/23

    November 5, 2023

November 5, 2023

Volatility Reports 11/6/23

Duces wild

Last week the bulls put on a great show ending on Friday with the Dow up a flattering 222.22 points. Could have been in Vegas playing the numbers.

But it was good enough for many to forget any of the ill tidings a bear market might have been dragging up. No time to hear about geopolitical problems. If it’s not about inflation / interest rates with their preferred impact on earnings yield, it doesn’t matter.

So, like Alice’s rabbit, he’s late. he’s late, he’s late. The bull is late, but sure made up for the three lost months in a hurry.

What the averages in the States were able to do in one week of “pro-directional” trade they could not do in all previous 2023 trading, in either direction. The big news was it only took 38.2% of the time to recover all the decline from the October 16 high.

The bulls are proud of that weekly engulfing candle. But that time ratio is all about fear. That is a time ratio used to calculate the AVERAGE amount of time a bear market will take to correct the previous excess. Does it follow that the action of last week was short covering? It is well known that bull markets unfold slowly (aka low volatility) and bear markets more quickly (aka high volatility.)

Contrary Thinker has yet to find this rule ineffectual.

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