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    Volatility Reports 2/12/24

    February 11, 2024

February 11, 2024

Volatility Reports 2/12/24

 “Reach out and touch someone” ATT 1987

Bullish statement for the week pass:

  • The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high this week, gaining +1.37%. It’s only had one negative week since the October lows, rising +22% in that time.
  • This was the fifth straight weekly gain of +1% or more. Since 1950, there have only been 11 other five-week streaks of +1% or more.
  • The S&P 500 generally continued higher over the next few months, although 1956 and 1987 were notable exceptions.

Their takeaway: The current rally is beginning to challenge historical extremes, but as the legendary technician Paul Montgomery once said, “The most bullish thing the market can do is go up.”

I would put that quote into context, but It’s not cynicism to point out that “trends persist and persist longer than the majority expect. The above stats are nothing more than chasing past performance.

While the legend Paul Montgomery was a legend, he was a market timer, and his lunar cycles had a change of trend date on the 9th of February. It expected a high, I do not lie.

I wanted to remind CTs of the bull bear time ratio. Here is a fact “It took close to three years for the S&P to go from 4k to 5k. 

The rule is a bear will reverse -cash in-at least a plurality of that advance (38%to 62%) assuming the markets in a longer-term secular bull,

or 100% to 168% of the advance if in a longer-term bear market in one quarter of the time. More precisely, what the SP did in three years can be completely undone in nine months.

The free markets are the hub of finance; and capitalism is a contact sport. So, let’s “… reach out and touch someone.”

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