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    Volatility Reports 2/28/22

    February 28, 2022

February 28, 2022

Volatility Reports 2/28/22

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Vice-President Kamala Harris said in her meetings with European leaders, this is “a defining moment” for the future of the world.

The impact of the collapse of the Russian economy is being used as an excuse for the bear market around the world. Rather as Vice President Harris puts it well as a defining moment. How will western-style democracies and western values hold up? In the study of BIG HISTORY, the academics see the current period as a threshold, time will tell.

With that said, my best advice to advisors, investors, and managers is not to be swayed by headlines. The media only sees them as excuses for what the market is doing and it will not be until the end of the trend that the truth is understood.

In the short MartketMap Issue#7a I said that “After the mini panic low 3/23/2020, there was an ADV/DEC ratio buy signal along with an Upvol/DownVol ratio surge buy signal with the long bar days.

However, from the low on 2/24/22, which many of my competitors called a panic there was no such buy signal. Rather the high/low diffusion index on both major markets continued to show distribution. Our featured chart shows the indicator here still holding above 1.00 telling investors there are more new lows than new highs. this indicator is not the only “bearish” indicator in play now, Contrary thinker does not work such tools in a vacuum.

The charts also give clues on a number of issues. The SPY chart shows how old support is not resistance, high lighted in blue; and that price level is coincidental with the Gann 1×1 trend line cross-over. From a trend following point of view, the SPY has broken below the smoothed Bollinger Bands and continues to trade below it, suggesting the trend is down.

From an EWT point of view, each leg of decline is only a first wave, setting up a one-two series, which is almost always the lead up to a waterfall high ROC trend. In this case a downtrend. Last Friday’s rally appears to be a one-day wonder into new resistance, high lighted in blue.

Just as bearish is the NASDAQ comp with a clear five wave structure leading to a wave [1] end on 2/24/28, right in line with MarketMaps COT calendar.

In MarketMap™ 2022- Issue 7a I explained why Friday’s rally was typically a one day wonder:

“One of the elements of a bull market, especially in the early stages, there are one-day long bar declines, shakeouts that at most suggest a 10% correction. they happen 99% of the time within a few days of a high pivot.”  I went on to say that,

“The inverse is true of a bear market, that near a low pivot – especially one that is being called a panic when there is no evidence of a panic – a one-day wonder is a natural occurrence to shake out the weak hands and keep the Perma bulls compliant.

Contrary Thinker’s expectations are the same. Both time and price suggest that without a bell ringing panic extreme, there is more decline.  I stated that “A minor recovery is expected into March 3-6. From that COT high the decline remains on track for a low in mid to late summer and panic in May is possible.”

Any recovery early this week will be used to add back closed-out mega-profits from late last week plus new bearish ideas.

The decline from here should last two trading weeks with the second week prone to long bar declines, something that exceeds 4%, which has not been seen yet.

Check-in with Trade Exchange for new ideas, they hit there first. An updated user doc is forthcoming.

Are you getting your investment advice from memes? Leave the public domain. Are 30 years of successful experience worth $10/month? Use this URL and put it in your pocket – smartphone and other handheld devices.

Trade-Ideas? Just $10/month for all of them! Use your smartphone here, clip and paste: https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

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