March 18, 2021

Volatility Reports 3/18/2021

Good things come to those who wait.

The same patience it takes to ride out the cycle of a cyclical bull market is also required when waiting for the time to move to cash, which began at the end of 2018 and 13 months ago. It also takes a high degree of tolerance for the all-important hedge trades, especially if you are always in the markets, which would otherwise put you and your clients at risk for a 30% to 80% drawdown.

The Long term T-bonds peaked in March of 2020 on panic buying – as outlined by TEM reaching an extreme rule #1 – it still took over five months for the downtrend to cause a MA crossunder; and not until the last 45 days to move out of low gear in the rate of descent.

This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International