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    Volatility Reports 3/8/24 Crude Oil

    March 8, 2024

March 8, 2024

Volatility Reports 3/8/24 Crude Oil

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Volatility Report’s Position and Outlook – fiscal year basis

Last week March 1, 2024 CT pointed out that oil wanted to breakout and when she did, it would have a bull run. Here is the same chart though Thursday’s close. The contexts has not change’s. In fact, the tension behind the market is event higher with the smooth Bollinger bands now contracting towards each other.  An added set-up to trade the break.

From a bar chart structure or Elliott Wave point of view from the low oil has experienced three up legs, a bullish occurrence. The trend is clearly higher longer term. Also, given that the Elliott pattern is a 1 – 2 series aka a leading diagonal triangle, which by nature leads to a forceful trend.

Having I-T long positions is a good idea, buying dips in the futures or ETFs.  I have options on various ETFs on my watch list.

Timing the next crude run

Mapping the oil market in the first quarter is in line with the action thus far by the crude oil futures. I used the first quarter of his scenario chart previously to support the idea of the expected ATH on stocks would co-inside with the short term peak in oil. The market is not in that time frame, just yet. There is a positive attractors on March 15-17 happening at the same time the market map makes it COT lower into April.

Stocks like inflation BUT not too much inflation, aka disinflation. So while big oils margin expand with higher prices the oil industry stocks move higher. Until the public shots about the cost of living and the Fed reacts.

Two take aways from the 2024 map is the peak expected in the first ten days of March in stocks. I stated previously the preferred pattern we look to trade are failures, reversals. Hence a near term breakout in Oil followed by a reversal fits the scenario for the stock averages with a meaningful high in this period This fits the long term map of crude, looking down into late April. Hence a head fake breakout followed by a mean reversal in oil. With stocks headed lower.

However the sun shines on the oil patch  come summer. Oil is expected the boom, the big comeback or “killer” inflation sets up from late Spring into late Autumn. The Astrological events fit the mapping chart with the Sun favoring Neptune from mid year to mid November.

 

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