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    Volatility Reports 4/26/21 Bitcoin

    April 25, 2021

April 25, 2021

Volatility Reports 4/26/21 Bitcoin

A top is in place, and a more decline is expected.

Volatility Report of 4/16/21 did not mix words when it said, “The volatility background provides a setup for a 30% to an 80% fall in the next 30 to 45 days.” That forecast was based on both our timing method and our dynamics model. Our current work expects the decline to pick up speed, not based on some wild guess to get publicity. Rather Contrary Thinker’s methods, which include the curation of social media content all of this is excited about the “new game” on the street and speculating about what it is going to do next and why. All of which comes across as “… throwing it at the wall to see what sticks.”

For the EWT petitioner, the decline unfolded in a nice and neat five-wave structure, calling the larger trend down. Thus far, the decline has only been 25% in a week, which is certainly not the makings of a currency unless the vendors have a wide bid/offer spread to cover their risk and dispose of the digital currency at the time of the transaction. That statement can be expended to all the cryptos as not being a substitute for money.

I would add that it will not look much like a hedge when the profit takers are done.

The breakdown level of 58k was taken out on the open. After putting in a near term now at 47.5k, the remainder of the initial targets remain 45k, 39k, 33k, and 25k. The legend of Bitcoin will not go away for the next 20 years. The smoke dream of pennies into tens of thousands was last born in the late 1920s, and the hat cycle is repeating. The question is how many banks – which to all accounts and headlines came to the game late, will have deep enough pockets to hold for the very long term and still maintain client reserves. 

It is worth repeating that Contrary Thinker sees BTC as the front runner of ALL “risk taker’s” markets. It is the bell-weather. So goes BTC, so goes the Dow Jones, the S&P, and the world indices.

The featured chart inserted below shows part of our time factor research. The 1 year and a quarter cycle – 65 weeks- began cresting back in January of this year. As with all bullish cycles, it is right hand translated, skewed to the right for its nominal price high, which gives it little time to make it to its cycle low due in June or July.

The bottom line in the face of all the sky is falling Hennypennies, the US dollar is the world reserve currency, and nothing will change that except that the alternatives will look even more fragile. Since the Plaza Accord, the death of the dollar has been the rallying cry for any publication trying to get a readership. After 40 years of neo-liberal currency debasement, the green back-ended its secular bear market in 2011. Today the USA is on the verge of real economic growth, and the demand for dollars for infrastructure will push the USD higher. Plus,  offshore currencies will find their way into this growth, into US capital.


Get the next three issues of MarketMap-2021 – for the time factor. Take the 45-day subscription trial, which includes the eBook of MarketMap’s 2021/22 cycles, the Special Report “Traits of a Market Panic” to make a Fortune PLUS eligible for a long-term discount when you subscribe. 


MarketMap-2021 Annual Scenario Planner provides historical parallelism based on 160 years of data, repetitive extra market events and their effect on markets, tidal cycles peaks and lows, market cycles for predicting time frames for lows, and astrological cycles to isolate cresting cycles. 
Volatility Reports fine-tunes MarektMap’s longer-term scenario planner for the implementation of hedges and long positions. The research publication uses advanced price-based systems buy and short bias signals, traditional Technical Analysis, and new volatility modeling for market dynamics timing, including sectors and newer ETFs.

Both publications share curated news media to add backstories that fit with the ongoing market-based research. 

Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
Copyright 1989-2020

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA
92264 USA. 760-459-4681 OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its clients’ trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

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