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    Volatility Reports 4/9/24

    April 9, 2024

April 9, 2024

Volatility Reports 4/9/24

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Market particulars vs generalities

My friend Jeff Hirsch took over his dad’s biz and has advanced it as a good general stock market almanac, if you buy it, please drop my name. The problem that most will not have with it is that it is good. Whereas, for me good id not good enough.

I look for the exceptional. As the average, the good will be reduced to little when the bear is finished in terms of both price and time. What they are now calling “drawdown” is a term used by system developers for periods when the system stops working.

My group is well rounded and here is a plug in for TradeStation of a basic breakout system on Bitcoin with $125 slippage RT reflecting the max drawdown during periods when breakouts fail to get day trading carry over.

Whereas when you find the exceptional, all it takes is one good trade to make the year, or better. That is how the better prop desk is taught and that is how the likes of Soros and Druckenmiller and Jones, among many others, do it. How they are always making 30% every year, beating the buy and hold good is ok investors.

One of the lessons my Father taught me – besides brush your teeth before you put your tie on – is to always defend yourself.

So think risk management first, not offense. So while the seasonals are saying in “general” as Jeff outlines here:

“April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. April is #1 DJIA month by average performance since 1950, 2nd best S&P 500 month and 4th best NASDAQ (since 1971). ”

Fair enough, but the facts remain since 1950, every time the market makes it yearly or ATH between 2/10 and 4/26 it has been followed by a bear market and a recession. And before 1950, assuming that after 1950 we did not evolve into super humans. The same occurred in 1892, 1937 and 1923, tops were followed by bears and depressions. The exceptions, like 2020 was the fastest bear market in history.

What is key is that all of the above tops – exceptional tops – are made in the same lunar cycle that the markets the risk markets – esp. the BITCOIN – are in today. That is +/- 60* either side on the new moon. And today’s was within the ord of a Solar Eclipse in Aries, with high correlations to recessions when Aires is involved.

What would you do if you were handed an exceptional opportunity? Become a Contrary Thinker to find them!! 

At the close Monday, the market’s signature into the last hour was mixed, rates up dollar down, Gold up VIX depressed. The averages bobbing and weaving sideways.

The Nikkei seen here appears to have a bearish down trend going, after tracing out a five wave EWT structure, followed by a simple three wave I-T counter trend as seen in the left hand window. that countertrend has found resistance in the ratio resistance area and being rebuffed as I publish.

TEM hit panic buying at the recent highs shown on the weekly chart, right hand window. The low side on new 2024 support is a reasonable I-T target, 34,000.

Bearish trade ideas are forthcoming.

Bitcoin, is set up for new highs with targets near 79k. In group I said: “A 20% jump in Bitcoin for its last run to new highs from the horizontal triangle seen here. Trade 2x ETF BITX “

Failure to make new highs here post triangle would be an abject failure leading to a sudden and nasty decline that would target 56k for a 4th wave decline. MarketMap’s risk takers sentiment map for 2024 reflects an ultimate high for Bitcoin in May. The long term wave count seen on the weekly chart below allows for one more I-t rally to new highs, maybe the 100k level.

In the mean time, CT is focused on S-T trading the ETFs and related options. Hungry for ideas, only pay if they are BIG winners, $100 for doubles and $200 for triples. Member’s only honor system. You don’t have to take the trades.

The above chart projects the widest point of the triangle from the end of “E” for its traditional target. It can over should by one of the further out ratios, as seen on the data window inset.

Bitcoin being the wild west does amend itself more easily to TA than NYSE member c=shares with dealer and market market’s legal ability to protect themselves, thus impacting the market.  That free market action is seen in the weekly chart in how well it is squared to show natural targets and supports.

If the election was going to held today, Thump would be a loser based on his stocks performance.

The market is only as strong as its weakest sector, the small caps

the following idea is not working, when they do sell off the small caps are holding up, I will focus on where the masses of profits are ripe to take, than the current bear market in the “The small cap Russell 2000”

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Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Many thanks to everyone that has supported this work over the years and thanks in advance to the new members for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.


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Great and Many Thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker since 1989,
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