Volatility Reports 6/12/20
June 11, 2020
June 11, 2020
Looking back at the mini climatic low compared to the sell-off Thursday
Headline from contrary Thinker May 27, 2020 “late bear rally into panic buying and we pointed out that the “World Market’s recovery looks old and feeble,” based on our volatility models leading indication a Technical Event #3. That was eight trading days before the nominal price high and pivot.
In turn on Thursday the 11th the lower gap open left an island of buyers from June 6 through June 10, who will not be happy campers waiting to break even. All Contrary Thinker subscribers are aware of the time frames outlined to a peak in June. Whether it is a primary peak and the market only produces a failed rally or it makes a new recovery high before the onset of the next bear market leg is academic. From an investment, trading, and capital preservation point of view, the sell-off yesterday did not make a Short-Term (S-T) low.
That brings me to the main point of this issue, how to pinpoint high probability lows. What I call “low risk.”
From right to left, you can see the three main indicators set up the low. The daily bar as early as February 19 made a mini panic S-T low. TEM reached a TE#1 and the panic index reached an extreme above 70. That panic was the kickoff of the larger decline and provided a respite for a few days.
However, the weekly bar was not in gear with that low. It is easy to see the same three indicators provide an extremely low signal in the last two weeks of March. TEM hit a TE#1 (%C below 40 and HV above 60) and the Panic index was above 70. The monthly bar for March confirmed the low with its own TE#1 and a Panic reading at 70.
At that point you can go back to the daily bar and see the Panic index move back above 70 and a new TE#4, suggesting a change of trend condition from attending to range expansion.
When you look at Thursdays sell-off, there is no sign of a S-T low. The market peaks in low volatility TE#3 and has not provided a fresh event and the panic index is below 70. There is more decline to come.
A sidebar here, I have many long term clients that are very good trading and know these inside methods. I missed this big tradable low. For two reasons, one is a tested low is ideal along with the above and that did not happen. Two I was 101% focused on the hedge program which did very well netting over 100k on 900k from February 24 to March 16. Once disengaged I was looking to do it again, which was partially put on for a few days with mixed results but no drawdown.
That decline, which we expected along with the amount of risk – expecting a 50% decline – hit fast, it was extraordinary, not leaving even the best hedger time to catch his breath. Part of my vision for Contrary Thinker was upscale communications, your input is something I listen to, keep me on my toes, I will appreciate your feedback.
One of the hedge fund masters I admire and work to simulate is Standley Druckenmiller. He missed the “V” shaped bottom as well. BOA moved their targets for the S&P higher after admitting on CNBC they missed the low. Well, that may put me in good company but I would rather be right and I would rather provide the best advisory to my membership.
Here is a short curated article on the Zero Hedge site about Stanley.
Lastly, heads up, hedges are going back on Friday or Monday. More on that and strategies in a private memo to full members only. New TradeStation workspaces that I use for the hedge program are going up before the open today.
Great and Many Thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
A Thinking Man’s Trader Since 1989,
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-6183820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
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