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    Volatility Reports 7/13/21

    July 13, 2021

July 13, 2021

Volatility Reports 7/13/21

A long-time mutual fund type said Monday there is no “bell ringer” of excessive optimism by the markets that would give a “risk-off” signal.

That in and of itself is a bell ringer because it’s not the train you see that will kill you, it’s the one you don’t see.

I’ve written in these pages that the panic pandemic sell-off was not a black swam. It was a known unknown because it was news in the public domain in 2019 hence the 19 in Covid19 yet the market in its blithering way advanced into February 19, 2020. Just like the run-up by Enron in 2000, where the news was out regarding its accounting practices, yet it climbed to all-time highs on August 23, 2000. Here again, a known unknown, what I think of as dump risk assessment.

I am sure that many will think I am simply projecting. However, a “known unknown” is the risk a person or organization is aware of but is unaware of the size and effect of the issue. As I have pointed out along with several United States Senators my advisory told my people to raise cash, gave “off risk” advice in the early part of 2021.

“Hmm, potential pandemic, what risk?”  Yet the media and the administration downplayed it for a time.

For example, my Father founded a raincoat company in the 40s “Aligator Raincoat Company,” as in the overcoat that William Faulk adorns in the Columbo TV series of the 60s, and never took off. For my Dad a rainy day was a good day, for him, drought was a risk, a known unknown regarding when, where, and how long, and so on. A known unknown risk.

Today there is a clear risk to the markets and not the ones that we all hear streaming in social media. Since the Trump election, I am more aware of the Geo-Political problems that face the markets. From the internal issues in the USA to the international issues that exist with Russian hacking to China’s competition.

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