Volatility Reports 7/18/22
July 18, 2022
July 18, 2022
Today’s close filled the gap open, that is an old fashion Larry William’s sell signal. The closing of the gap on the weekly bar after a Monday gap open on Monday’s close is a reversal signal.
Couple that simple and easy sell signal is the following posted in Contrary Thinker’s membership group on LinkedIn.
A major cycle is having an encore topping process how. The featured chart below is a helpful reference.
The same time cycle hit with high tides cycles in January / February 2022 along with astrological trigger events between Mars and Uranus. this is not a Sunday newspaper astrology insert next to the comics, telling you how your week is going to be for your Sun sign. It is about earmarking calendar anniversary dates that repeat.
The span of the cycle is shaded in blue.
What is extremely noteworthy is the same cycle made a top in late 1999 / early 2000. A period many are drawing comparisons to, which is fine and valid. I have tied into that major top based also on the date of the ATHs are the same as the time window for the Great Bull Market’s high pivot 1/4/22 based on the Dow.
Contrary Thinker sees the market’s scenario more in line with the 60-year cycle panic of 1962, which also had its ATH peak in the same time window as the 2022 window.
The bottom line sustains, sells rallies, and uses bear market tactics on rallies. On the long side is the inflation macro. I have a number of requests for more insights into that major area, which will happen in the near term.
For our new members that like the Gold and Silver market, I will provide more details but for now, there is nothing pro-directional on the horizon until a key low pivot in mid to late August.
If you are one of our visitors who just received a DM from me via LinkedIn, regarding all the benefits of membership including group access, use the 45 trail to make sure how good Contrary Thinker can be.
In the last issues of “MarketMap™ 2022,” I pointed out that time analysis (cycles) and TEM supported
“a high ROC trend and that (context) have been behind the market since the minor low on 7/5/22.” and “what the market has shown thus far, I would view it as disappointing.”
If I was a bull, which I am not.
I went on to say that “A reversal here…should lead to a decline that does not stop at the July 18 COT and all hell will break lower into the August 22 COT.”
I discussed what most advisors, managers, and traders miss because they think in terms of “absolutes” and if the signals are not “pitch perfect” they are not up to snuff.”
What they are missing is to see the “failure” as the signal of the reversal, how else can there be trends, unless they break the current wave of cycles or oscillations.
That is precisely what we are witnessing here, from the mid-June low the market is locked in a trading cycle, a range. After a trend ranges are frustrating to most traders.
That brings me to the intent of my Volatility Model the Technical Event Matrix. It provides leading signals on these market conditions. The chart for all four majors was posted here last week and it still says “play the break!”
In other words, the background (tension) behind the market will sustain a high rate of change trend once the primary trend takes hold again.
Today’s open – from an EWT point of view has met minimum expectations for the counter-trend.
Stop and think, avoid risk is the best risk management. There is another 20% to 25% risk from here.
Great and Many Thanks
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.
–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options
–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.
This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International