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    Volatility Reports August 5 2022

    August 5, 2022

August 5, 2022

Volatility Reports August 5 2022

 

Social Media Data Points

1. $SPY looks like one of the narrowest ranges of the year. Anemic volume too.
2. We’ve now seen 4 selloffs and 4 rallies in the S&P 500. With the last two selloffs taking the market down > 20%, it makes sense we got the largest rally so far.
3. QQQ’s running into overhead resistance. This is an important potential inflection point. We are quite overbought. At the March top, QQQ was 6.5% above 50dma; Today we are at 9.7%. Yellow light! Looking to short tomorrow IF we take out today low.
4. Most recent breadth surge brought 22.9% of S&P 500 members to new 3-month highs, quite close to 23.4% in late April … not consistent with spikes seen in mid- and late-2020, as well as mid-2021
5. Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures–bets on where investors think the S&P 500 will go–turned bearish in Jun and got more bearish since. That’s despite a big rally in Jul. Implies that many still think this is a bear market rally and we could dip back down. {based on the net non-commercial e-Mini S&P500 positioning}
6. Sometimes it is important to remember that the second year of a new President isn’t that strong historically.
7. Then it is even more important to remember that the following year can be quite strong.
8. Financials not able to hold support on a relative basis
9. The approximate yield 2.75 on the 10-year. That’s the line in the sand.
10. $TLT $NDX $QQQ iShares 20+ Yr TSY ETF and the Nasdaq-100 have moved essentially the same this year, down almost exactly the same. Is it really just too simple to acknowledge that simple discounted cash flow math can explain so much more than macro or recession discussions?
11. Big area here for gold. Back to the scene of the crime where it gave up support/$1800. #gold $GLD $GDX

The positive correlation pointed out in the last day or two and highlighted today by a professor in the LinkedIn social stream, was highlighted by me five months ago, in February 2022. See the post via this link, https://bit.ly/3d3dudz

 

 

Contrary Thinker’s Positions:

  • US Equities, Long Term (L-T) bearish, I-T peaking, S-T pivoting
  • US Government Bonds and Notes, Long Term (L-T) bearish, I-T peaking, S-T pivoting
  • Carbon-based energy markets I-T top in place
  • Green Energy Sector L-T bullish, I-T bottoming, S-T bottoming
  • USD and inverse FX for trading partners, AUD, EUR and JPY, Long Term (L-T) Bullish, I-T topping process, S-T topping process
  • Cryptocurrencies, L-T bearish, I-T Topping process, S-T high pivot in place
  • Precious metals, I-T up trend, S-T topping
  • Industrial Metals Long Term Bearish, I-T up trend, S-T topping
  • Macro Agricultural Industry and Food sector Long Term Bullish, I-T bottoming, S-T bottoming
  • European Stock Market Long-term bear market, I-T topping process and S-T pivot high
  • Pac-Rim Stock Markets, mixed with selective bull market opportunities.

Volatility Report’s featured chart has more to do with price and time than the contextual background of the risk markets. The chart of the Dow 30 highlights the last six times the Dow squared intersected at an I-T high, and that high was coincidental with the regular trading cycle of 6 1/2 weeks. MarketMap™ COT dates are now creeping into the current time window when a low is expected; and as mentioned yesterday in group, it has to invert in order to pull the cycle back into gear with itself. A bearish outcome.

 

Big move trades were placed yesterday on the Trade Exchange app, one is a 10 to 1 opportunity to risk. More to come today and next week, along with traditional hedge ideas.

On Shore USA, yes, use this URL https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Offshore go to your local app store get the free Trade Exchange App, after installed on your hand held, use the url from your hand held device. https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn

Great and Many Thanks

Jack F. Cahn, CMT

Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889

— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

— Pricing is subject to change without notice.  My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.

–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options

–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.

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