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February 13, 2024

Volatility Reports 2/13/24

“When the Student Is Ready, the Teacher Will Appear”

I have pointed out a number of times it’s the little things to keep your eyes on to know when a change in trend is about to happen.

I know that MarketMap will always put us in the current period for that change. I am confident that technical analysis – including Elliott Wave – will integrate into that time frame adding to the likelihood of success.

Unlike the majority I have insight into the forthcoming dynamics of the trend. Volatility Report’s model lets us know if the change will be followed by chop, trading range or high rate of change trend and so on…

But it’s the little things that go unappreciated and to witness one of these little things when everything listed above plus extremes in sentiments is “a happening thing.” Here are a few more details with charts

 

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February 11, 2024

Volatility Reports 2/12/24

 “Reach out and touch someone” ATT 1987

Bullish statement for the week pass:

  • The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high this week, gaining +1.37%. It’s only had one negative week since the October lows, rising +22% in that time.
  • This was the fifth straight weekly gain of +1% or more. Since 1950, there have only been 11 other five-week streaks of +1% or more.
  • The S&P 500 generally continued higher over the next few months, although 1956 and 1987 were notable exceptions.

Their takeaway: The current rally is beginning to challenge historical extremes, but as the legendary technician Paul Montgomery once said, “The most bullish thing the market can do is go up.”

I would put that quote into context, but It’s not cynicism to point out that “trends persist and persist longer than the majority expect. The above stats are nothing more than chasing past performance.

While the legend Paul Montgomery was a legend, he was a market timer, and his lunar cycles had a change of trend date on the 9th of February. It expected a high, I do not lie.

I wanted to remind CTs of the bull bear time ratio. Here is a fact “It took close to three years for the S&P to go from 4k to 5k. 

The rule is a bear will reverse -cash in-at least a plurality of that advance (38%to 62%) assuming the markets in a longer-term secular bull,

or 100% to 168% of the advance if in a longer-term bear market in one quarter of the time. More precisely, what the SP did in three years can be completely undone in nine months.

The free markets are the hub of finance; and capitalism is a contact sport. So, let’s “… reach out and touch someone.”

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February 9, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner #6

Tao - WikipediaMy Tao to beat the markets, In a man made universe study man, not the universe.

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Mapping of investors attitudes for the 2024 points to how keen people are on risk taking, no matter the vehicle. In other words, “Safety? don’t be absurd, why should I get 4% without risk when I can make three times in a few days or weeks.”

In our LinkedIn group I use the front end of the annual scenario planner for the chart shown here to time the current bull move in Bitcoin. In our  group I said on Thursday, “Bito continues to lead the stocks, by weeks at this point. The long term 2024 map is in issue #7 on the way, here is the front part of it for the short-term trading time element support.”  (Bito is 2x bullish Bitcoin etf.)

 

I will have to concede to the bulls for now and may even play the long side, until its over. But the in step one to one correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P has long since faded. The bellwether nature of Bitcoin remains but as it revealed back in August 2023 through the end of October 2023 the name brand of cryptocurrencies can have a massive rally while Nasdaq and friends have a S-T correction.

So the bull run here in BTC may well spill over into the Stock averages, at some point. But,  it will not be before a nasty I-T correction of the NYSE members and Nasdaq.

What follows are the scenario maps for Bitcoin, bonds and inflation in 2024 and more.

 

If you are a visitor to the Volatility Reports LinkedIn group and think the chart to the left is a rabbit I pulled out of my hat, it will not matter when your free look runs out, will it.

Below are the opening odds for Super Bowl 58., With the 49ers tipped to win it all.

Super Bowl spread: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Super Bowl Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (+102) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-120)
Super Bowl total: Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110)

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