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April 3, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#12

No one wants to hear about a terminal move, the end of a trend, the unexpected

Its more than “livelihood. Its all about the group comradery or the avoidance of the embarrassment for not being in the party or some feeling about being left behind.

But today great expectations are established, nothing new here and the Fed based on their tact in their statements last Wednesday leave no room for variance. As issue #11 pointed out, we’ve either a period of closer examination of this pretext or precondition.

The market’s are leaving a number of clues behind;

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April 1, 2024

MarketMap™ 2024 Scenario Planner Issue#11

Bullish Spin Sustained until today’s open

The news over the holiday was presented as bullish.  The FRB “we have a chance” logic is entering a period of rethink.

The bullish forecast will always find an excuse for the bear coming later than sooner. The balanced narrative from the majority suggests that months from now “the never-ending gravy train of profits, economic growth, and security may start to morph into signs that the patchwork of misdirection and false narratives is unravelling.”

Hmm, if that’s true and the market is a discounting mechanism as Wall Street’s EMT suggest that would be a negative drawing card, would it not? The problem is the market cannot be explained by EMT and its so-called discounting even while popular because it makes intuitive sense to so many.

The same way Adam Smith’s invisible hand is palpable to the fundamentally inclined and the new CMTs. Yet they do not find cycles, or tidal and planetary influences as meaningful, at best second tier.

However, Contrary Thinker does and finds that the TIME element is an important factor in a comprehensive market-based approach.

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March 25, 2024

Volatility Reports “rate cuts be careful what you wish for…”

A new millennium of repeating patterns.

What increases Contrary Thinker’s expectations for a major top being made is this repetition that no one else has pointed out, yet. This concept of repeating patterns dates back to Edwards and Magee among others and how they happen to recur in threes. The featured chart shown here is an amazing example, where the previous major highs in stocks from the start of the new century worked out as irregular tops, taken many by surprise. Where the same pattern is unfolding now, which also will take the majority by surprise.

 

Little work remains to put in the final high, or was it was done Friday

The first chart used here shows the failure to breakout on Friday ending with a 350 point Dow reversal. On the daily bar that appears to be the end of the horizonal triangle wave four (e-4), right hand window. Text book fifth waves are almost always the shortest after a first wave extension, which is the case here.

Adding fuel the a new down trend is the bar chart structure from the high is an impulse wave (three down two intervening up) in EWT that is in the direction of the larger trend. For trend followers, it is the same as a moving average cross under.

With the anti-trust news I have been warning about just now creeping into the news media the bulls can not for too much longer ignore the news background since that is their foundation. Add to that a strong dollar see the bullish volatility breakout it the USD chart below, and higher interest rates contradicting the majority with a bullish breakout in gold – the anti-paper asset –  and  the best they can do is hold their breath.

As suggested in group and in “Volatility Reports” for traders to keep their eye on the old leadership, high tech and AI. The S&P semi-conductor sector looks to have put in its high pivot ahead of the Dow and S&P ( which have their giant oil company’s which look bullish for now and remember to new take over trend that is going on in the oil patch.)

The daily bar shows an AI & semiconductor market that has broken down below new support rallied back to test it and failed to recover.  The five minute and 60 minute bars are in line with a reversal of the uptrend showing an impulse wave down followed by a simple three wave counter trend.  If the Globex Sunday sell off continues a decline on bullish Monday would add confidence to this bearish forecast.

The market Wall Street loves to hate, Gold.

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