November 5, 2023
Last week the bulls put on a great show ending on Friday with the Dow up a flattering 222.22 points. Could have been in Vegas playing the numbers.
But it was good enough for many to forget any of the ill tidings a bear market might have been dragging up. No time to hear about geopolitical problems. If it’s not about inflation / interest rates with their preferred impact on earnings yield, it doesn’t matter.
So, like Alice’s rabbit, he’s late. he’s late, he’s late. The bull is late, but sure made up for the three lost months in a hurry.
What the averages in the States were able to do in one week of “pro-directional” trade they could not do in all previous 2023 trading, in either direction. The big news was it only took 38.2% of the time to recover all the decline from the October 16 high.
The bulls are proud of that weekly engulfing candle. But that time ratio is all about fear. That is a time ratio used to calculate the AVERAGE amount of time a bear market will take to correct the previous excess. Does it follow that the action of last week was short covering? It is well known that bull markets unfold slowly (aka low volatility) and bear markets more quickly (aka high volatility.)
Contrary Thinker has yet to find this rule ineffectual.
November 1, 2023
Crawford Attractors provide COT low dates to end this year and hot spots to start 2024
The chart inset is the results of an empirical study regarding the high correlation of the Venus trine Uranus transit. Going into the last two days of October, this is the last positive influence for the next three weeks. Its occurrence is only fitting after a S-T oversold with the S&P below its 200-day moving average, a low-risk area to buy, when in a bull market. The near-term bottom pivot also happened on a cycle low tide, as pointed to in the MarketMap™ 2023 table of COTs. With the Volatility model registering a TE#1, almost ideal for a “V” low pivot.
Contrary Thinker, however, chooses to override the view that everyone saw. Instead, as outlined in VR 11/31/23, we stayed with the outlook for continued panic selling.
Note: to be clear, it’s not jumping off a building1929 panic, rather selling driven by fear of losing capital. (Continued below.)
October 30, 2023
August 1, 2023 at 4:52 PM EDT
Updated on August 1, 2023 at 5:16 PM EDT
The Biden administration is again delaying a replenishment of the nation’s emergency oil reserve because of market conditions, according to people familiar with the matter. The decision comes as oil prices have rallied above $80 a barrel.
After the release for the pandemic, Biden said he would buy it back under $72.00. Well, the market was under that for the month of May. What happen, to leave the USA’s SPR short? Is that a problem?