Volatility Reports November 21, 2022
November 21, 2022
November 21, 2022
VIX data does not suggest the daily wide swings in the stock market. Over the last 30 days, S&P 500’s minimum gain on an up day is 2% (rounded).
What the data reflects is more precise than the widely used put/call ratio. Today that statistic is just not a bear/bull ratio because there can be calls on leveraged bear (short) ETFs. Even if they have made changes in the ratio calculation, it is thought to reflect the mentality of risk-averse risk-takers compared to futures traders, as such it is the little guy that is assumed to be dumb money.
Well, the data used in Contrary Thinker’s fear and greed oscillator is more than the current perception of risk in the stock market today, looking out at various lengths. We also use the UVXY and others, which is a portfolio of S-T volatility futures. UVXY is ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF, long volatility futures. For a hedge fund, the cost of carrying a hedge is the value of that portfolio decreasing.
From an Alpha-achieving point of view, it is the process of moving to long volatility, that achieves Alpha, not the longer term carrying the position. The index has a slow-down trending bias because the stock market is known to be bullish most of the time. However, the index spikes to higher levels. Today the low 20% range suggests these investors see little risk of a volatility breakout. So, on the other hand an uptrend in the index is more like a spike leading the stock market. Back when Covid19 made the mainstream media the index spike to over .85.
With that in mind, a bear market always has
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