Volatility Reports September 29, 2022
September 29, 2022
September 29, 2022
Sizzle or Fizzle?
I never thought a headline phased as a question was a good way to introduce a news article or a research brief. A question reflects doubt, and I think readers want answers, not more questions. Be that as it is this morning, our pals at the “Seeking Alpha” mailer is headed up with that query, which I assume reflects the doubt permeating the gaggle of content-providing market observers.
Tie that in with other mainstays of the personalities on financial networks which have either given into bearish notions with observations that “late cycle” economic events are happening that preclude the beginning of a new bull market, or the manic sales type permeating the podcast airways and popping up on Fox business who has gone nuts over the revelation that he has found a relationship between Cryptocurrencies – the stock market and the US dollar. “if the USD would break below 103 it be like 2017.” If not it’s the bear city.
Well ok then, that ties into the notion of a breakdown finally after nine months of correction is the fact that the perma-bulls are giving in. Both on social media and cable channels and it’s time to run with the herd.
Well, let’s start with what we know, we know that a bear market while larger than corrections, still corrects something.
The people at Charles Swabb put it this way, “It’s called a correction because historically the drop often “corrects” and returns prices to their longer-term trend. Is It the Start of a Bear Market?
Well according to the compliant sell side phrase “Nobody can predict with any degree of certainty whether a correction will reverse or turn into a bear market.”
On the contrary, there is a risk in the market from here of 10,000 Dow points and it is correcting the FOMO buying that pushed prices into their ATHs at the end of 2021.
The featured chart here is annotated for anyone in the public domain to review. Members already have seen the additional details on how the Dow will get there when it will get there, and the why of the risk assessment.
With a high degree of certainty in Mid-May 2011 Contrary thinker told its people “off risk.” and this has not changed since that date. You will not hear anyone disputing this fact.
We suggested to our people to sell into rallies and hedge their accounts.
Contrary Thinker was provided the opportunity of a private channel on the Smartphone app “Trade Exchange” and we took it. Our market opinions and positions are our own and do not reflect the opinion of any of the principles of Trade Exchange, while we hope that they have made millions from the ideas
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With that said, from the ATH that we called in the NASDAQ on 11/19/21 our middle-risk big swing ETF bull and the bear trading products to date performance is on the left on the screen grab here.
For investors, hedge fund managers who want to reduce their cost of carrying the hedges, deep-in-the-money options traders, and aggressive traders who swing trade the futures here is how our trade ideas have done on a 100k account from November 2021
In the past 11 months, Contrary Thinker’s trade ideas on 100k made it into over $1 million USD today.
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Trade Ideas? We do things the old fashion way. Contrary thinker provides support and market analysis to form the basis of the trades and get that to our informed membership and LinkedIn private group members.
You are dealing with a team led by a veteran with over 30 years of experience and suggest that if you are not experienced and have a low threshold for account balance changes, you look elsewhere. If you can take a loss, all you have to do is get the app, pay me $10/month, and after that a nominal incentive fee only on winners greater than a preset threshold. I have to win for you to make money.
On Shore USA, yes? Use this URL https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn
Offshore go to your local app store and get the free Trade Exchange App, after installing it on your handheld, use the URL from your handheld device. https://tradeexchange.app.link/jack_cahn
Let me know when you are on board, so I can get you into the group.
Work up your own trade plan based on some of the best and most complete research in the industry.
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Country Thinking is about letting go of traditional ways of thinking, the commonplace that no longer serves you well in investing and trading. Building from the truth, from first principles the robust into anti-fragile. Thanks in advance for your consideration, I look ahead to working with you for the duration.
Great and Many Thanks
Jack F. Cahn, CMT
Contrary Thinker 1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176 Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA. 800-618-3820 or 25/1 Poinsettia Court Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557 614-2811-9889
— Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client’s trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
— Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time.
–Trading futures and options involve the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options
–Futures results are not linear they can be better or worse While confident, CT does not and can not by law make any assurances.
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