We Are In Worse Shape For A Recession Now
June 10, 2019
June 10, 2019
CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Excepts: Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. Druckenmiller on CNBC ‘s “Squawk Box” Today WHEN: Today, Friday, June 7, 2019 WHERE: CNBC’s “ Squawk Box ” The following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with Billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley F. […]
Stanley is someone who takes what the legends know literally, as opposed the 99% of all the social media garbage you read, esp on Facebook and Twitter. More on that in a moment.
However, January 18, 2018, Market Map told you what Mr. Drukenmiller is saying now, no harm no foul stocks have done nothing since that date!
And in the January 23, 2018, in my MarketMap 2018 update, I said ” …the market is in a cluster of time windows likely to lead to a high pivot price, confirmed by a sizable decline %5 plus – established by our big swing (multi-month) systems sell (taking profits) and sell short signals before the end of the month. ” Just three days from the first of three peaks in the topping process.
In the February 12, 2018 publication I said
“The scenario was for the failed new high in late August early September, but as the January COT date was early by ten days. Now it looks like the peak will come at the end of the calendar month leading to a sell-off into mid-November.”
In the Volatility Report dated September 24, 2018, posted this table with dates for the peaks; and the maximum for the Dow was 10/3/2018. I concluded that brief expecting:
I concluded that “Single day risk measured by the Dow is 2000 points and risk going into November is at least 4,000 Dow points.” Over the three months, the Dow gave up 5,240 points into December 24, 2018.
This topping process has been a gift, with the third peak hitting as a failed new high by the Dow.
Volatility Report dated April 23, 2019,
I laid it out this way ” Traders should be on their toes for signs of a pivotal high going into the next change of trend window ideally on May 6 +/- 2 days but the leading edge on the 29th of April. Next Tuesday. Until that time, low volatility.”
The various significant indices peaked from April 29 into May 1 for the NASDAQ and declined 7%, into a Short term low pivoted on the first working day of June.
“From an EWT point of view, the decline from the late April early May peak may have just now finished off its first S-T leg down, allowing for a retracement of .236 to .382. ” I said on June 2, but the rally has been a high rate of change affair that my volatility model – TEM – supported for the three months downtrend at the time. However, the rally did not match the kick off surge back at the beginning of 2019. The type of momentum surge that Marty Zweig discovered to lead to more advancing markets. But this June rally has failed to live up to same big “internal bullish ratios.”
What you learn from the great ones is good risk management is not to take a risk. Again 90% of managers hear that has rhetoric, just words. Where in, it is the truth that any good card player will tell you, if you don’t have the cards to win, don’t bet on the “if come.” And when you are on a winning hand, you go for the juggler. Just ask Stanley, who is now in cash or kind.
This work by Jack Cahn is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International