the Contrary Thinker™, Strategy and Tactics, April 20, 2026.
Market Commentary and Insights
In Volatile Reports 4/17/26, I reduced the outlook to the following: The broad market is making new all-time highs into our April 20th change-of-trend window, with panic buying registering on the Nasdaq monthly bar and traditional divergences foreshadowing a peak. We expect a near-term pause — a day or two, potentially a multiple-hundred-point pullback — before one more advance into the change-of-trend date, after which the bull side should be closed out. The longer-term macro picture points to a period of hyper-stagflation where tangibles outperform paper assets, and our asymmetrical opportunities are focused on crypto, precious metals, energy, rare materials, and implied volatility.
In Strategy & Tactics, we outline the box institution of Wall Street has itself in, in attempting to achieve an above-average return relative to the S&P benchmark. Few professionals consider it achieving alpha. However, that rush for alpha was quite apparent on Friday. At that moment, similar to the unprecedented macro of hyper-stagflation, the action of the market in 2024 is unprecedented. This metaphoric action of declining like an escalator and advancing on an elevator. However, after deeper study, we did find an important top that looks very similar and that led to a major bear market.
What is more important here is that the price structure can easily be engineered to perceive a fifth wave advance being finished here by the majority of stock indices. That is not a problem, nor is it a problem to see a broad array of traditional technical tools generating bearish divergences, just not nationally but internationally.
What is more important is that the technical event model has generated a panic buying reading in the Nasdaq and has flipped from panic to low volatility in the other indices, which is a pattern that is coincidental with a change of trend peaks. That can all be self-gratiating thinking, but what is most important is that our timing models that we’ve shared with you are right on the money. We’ve always founded our forecast on four preceding content, no matter what the catalyst may be. A change in trend date is due today, April 20th, and April 21, based on our January Fractile and supported by Astrological Cycles.
CONTRARY THINKER™ Strategy & Tactics
Position Update — April 20, 2026 | Prices as of April 17, 2026 Close
In Strategy and Tactics, we have a standing rule that you never look a gift horse in the mouth. In other words, when you get a windfall, you take it. Our advisory on the 16th was to sell into strength. We certainly got that on Friday.
Closed Positions — Profits Taken
On the current change-of-trend date (April 16–20), we exited our short-volatility (bullish) positions as instructed. All three exceeded their original price targets before exit.
| Pos | Ticker | Description | Entry | Target | Exit | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | EWJ | Japan Recovery | $67.20 | $75.00 | $90.19 | +34.2% | CLOSED |
| 8 | EWG | Germany Re-Rate | $30.40 | $35.00 | $43.19 | +42.1% | CLOSED |
| 10 | EWT | Taiwan Semi Re-Rate | $44.10 | $50.00 | $83.22 | +88.7% | CLOSED |
Open Positions
Long-volatility (bearish) positions remain open. On the current COT change-of-trend date, we added to SDOW, SPDN, and EWV at the market as instructed.
| Pos | Ticker | Description | Entry | Target | Current | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SKF | Financials Short | $11.50 | $15.00 | $27.32 | +137.6% | Open |
| 3 | SLV | Silver Breakout | $29.50 | $35.00 | $73.63 | +149.6% | Open |
| 4 | SILJ | Junior Miners Catalyst | $12.80 | $16.00 | $33.00 | +157.8% | Open |
| 5 | TECS | Tech Sector Hedge | $9.80 | $13.00 | $13.06 | +33.3% | Open |
| 7 | SDOW | DJIA Hedge | $18.90 | $25.00 | $28.89 | +52.9% | Open — Added at $29.57 |
| 11 | SLVR | Silver Miners | $11.20 | $14.00 | $65.11 | +481.3% | Open |
| 12 | SPDN | Inverse S&P 500 | $22.00 | $28.00 | $9.13 | -58.5% | Open — Added at $9.17 |
| 13 | CHAU | China Bull 2x | $14.60 | $20.00 | $22.93 | +57.1% | Open |
| 14 | EWV | Short MSCI Japan | $9.20 | $13.00 | $19.60 | +113.0% | Open — Added at $19.70 |
Current prices as of April 17, 2026 close. Add-on entries at April 17 open. Options require manual price entry. Source: Yahoo Finance.
New Positions — Entered April 17, 2026
| Pos | Ticker | Description | Entry | Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | UVIX | Long 2x VIX Futures | $5.64 | $16.92 (3x) | Target is a triple or a panic reading — whichever comes first. 8-day options; go out 15 if more comfortable. |
| 16 | SLV | Silver — New Position | $73.63 | $90–$91 | Trading vehicle that fits your risk profile, from futures ETFs to options. |
| 17 | UCO | Crude Oil 2x Bull | $38.00 | $48.00 | Entry triggered on April 17 dip (intraday low $35.22). Target is $48 — the width of the triangle. |
| 18 | DBO | Invesco DB Oil Fund | $18.75 | $24.00 | Entry triggered at the low point of its trading range on April 17 (intraday low $18.54). |
If a panic reading registers on any open position — a Technical Event #1 or Technical Event #5 — before it reaches its price target, you will receive an immediate SMS exit signal. Panic readings override price targets. This applies to all open positions at all times.
To make sure you don’t miss a new recommendation, we need your mobile number for SMS alerts. Text messages go out the moment a new position is published, so you’re not relying on email timing or checking the site.
*****SMS alert setup is coming in a separate email within 24 hours. Watch for the subject line “Activate your S&T trade alerts.”*****
New recommendations are issued as they develop — not on a fixed schedule. When a setup triggers, you’ll receive a focused trade alert with the position details, thesis, and levels. These are not full newsletter issues — they’re concise, actionable notifications designed to get you positioned quickly.