Everybody Wants to Rule the World

The main drivers in life boils down to three simple components. Don’t laugh —

money, power, and sex.

You just have to keep asking yourself the right questions. Why is it so important to be the number one strongest state in the world? We’ll keep that in mind, and here is the ten-point proposal from Iran to the United States:

1. A permanent ceasefire
2. A complete halt to Israeli and U.S. strikes across the region, specifically Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen
3. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow safe passage through it
4. Collect tolls — reportedly $2 million for each ship passing through the Strait
5. Revenue sharing with Oman — toll revenues split with Oman as co-custodians of the Strait
6. Lift the sanctions — complete removal of all U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, and release of assets
7. Immediate return of all frozen Iranian funds held abroad
8. The right to enrich uranium — U.S. acceptance of Iran’s right to domestic uranium enrichment, while Iran commits to not seeking nuclear weapons
9. Reparations — full compensation paid to Iran for reconstruction costs
10. N. resolutions — the rescinding of past resolutions against the regime and a new binding U.N. Security Council resolution to enforce this deal

Now, that’s unequivocally a good deal for Iran on every single point, and it also validates Iran as an emerging world power. All ten add up to validation of Iran at the top of the hierarchy in the Persian Gulf — even the point about sharing tolls with Oman. What they are doing is dictating the rules.

And here is one of the other questions you should be asking. Why is it so important to be the number one strongest state in the world? Because, over the last 300 years — whether it was Britain, the United States, or China in the future — the number one state typically dictates the rules of how the world systems operate. The rules usually work to the advantage of the number one state. What you’re seeing with Iran is that they want to dictate the rules in the Persian Gulf, and all of those so-called proposals would be rules that put Iran in charge of power in the Persian Gulf itself.

Read those ten points again and let it sink in. A regional power has brought the largest military in the world to a standstill and is now dictating the terms of the de-escalation. That is what power looks like in 2026 — not measured in carrier groups, but in who writes the rules at the table. And if Iran can dictate the geopolitical terms, the next question is what it can dictate at the pump and at the refinery gate.

So we’ve already seen the price of oil go up to $125 a barrel with just the simple closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and unleaded gas at New York Harbor is pushing $4 a gallon. Yet the pundits spin it like this: we’re better equipped than we were back in the 1970s, and besides, OPEC is falling apart — with the exodus of the United Arab Emirates, the UAE is now free to produce over 5 million barrels per day. Hence, here comes more supply.

But really, unless you’re an observer of the markets AKA technician, as ContraryThinker™ is, you can’t be sure the markets have factored in any of the above considerations. Because here is a headline you don’t even hear: what about the tankers that made it through the Strait before it was closed? They haven’t reached the refineries yet. The timeline seems to evaporate the moment hope gets involved in the so-called analytical pricing.

That oil hasn’t hit the refineries yet, and what you’re paying at the pump right now is running on old inventory. So, when you look at crude oil, unleaded gas, and all of their related components in the futures markets breaking out to all-time historical highs — what is the market telling you?

It’s telling you you’ve only had a taste of what’s to come. Don’t shoot the messenger.

Some of the oil that left the Strait right before it closed hasn’t been delivered yet because it had to be rerouted along different shipping lanes. Once that’s all delivered — that’s it. There is no more coming.

From the news media point of view, from the social media point of view, this is where you get to the part where you find out.

Anyone saying, “Oh, this will all be cleared up in a couple of weeks” doesn’t understand that time and distance is a thing. They have no concept. Just because you can string together an optimistic sentence that sounds something like, “Oh, we don’t get that much oil from there!” — as if that won’t impact us — ignores that the countries that do get the most oil from there are responsible for half of what we import into the United States. For both imports and exports Europe is worse off. Not to mention little countries like Australia, which potentially could be facing a food shortage.

As my friends and followers, you just need to understand we have not gotten to the find-out part yet. The price you’re seeing at the pump and on the quote screen is a knee-jerk reaction to a Kinetic Warfare, the first bomb drop, as mentioned back on February 28th headline — not the impact of the Strait actually being closed. The oil that was already in transit is still working its way through the system; the refineries haven’t run dry yet. When that runs out, and given the strength Iran has just demonstrated at the negotiating table, the find-out part is what comes next. And make no mistake about it — that is what the markets in 2026 are walking into.

Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.

Great and many thanks,

Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989
Copyright 1989-2026

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